When to fold AK on the bubble?

[Ixnert]

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Therefore he’s getting 1.16:1 on his money, or, in reality, only needs to win this hand 46% of the time. Erego, shorty should be calling here with nearly any two cards. This is the most profitable decision!


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Good post, just picking a nit: there are a few hands here that shorty doesn't want to call with. E.g., 32o is worse than a 2:1 dog here against two random cards. Even if you assume that there won't be a call from either of the two blinds, shorty isn't quite getting the odds with hands that bad. (And even being forced to put in half his stack in the BB two hands from now, I've got to think his expectation is better with two random cards next hand or in the BB in two hands than all-in with 32o against a random hand now.)

But that doesn't interfere with the more important point -- 2nd stack should be calling with virtually nothing, shorty should be calling with virtually anything. Which it doesn't hurt to be reminded of. (I know it's something I'm guilty of forgetting when I'm at 2.5 BBs and staring at my sixth straight hand of 96o.)