$109s - Are you not committed yet?!?!

Unarmed · #1 06-27-2005, 03:24 PM

Bah.
Who waits until the river against his mid-pair?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter

CO (t1330)
Button (t2470)
SB (t2045)
BB (t915)
UTG (t965)
UTG+1 (t650)
MP1 (t745)
Hero (t880)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises to t90, 3 folds, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t195) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t125, Hero calls t125.

Turn: (t445) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t200, I push, BB folds.

kyro · #2 06-27-2005, 03:26 PM

If the board was still rainbow on the turn I could see it. No problems in pushing here. I think he calls this a large percentage of the time.

Unarmed · #3 06-27-2005, 03:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If the board was still rainbow on the turn I could see it. No problems in pushing here. I think he calls this a large percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're only worried about the diamond killing my action right kyro? I have the flush ace.

kyro · #4 06-27-2005, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If the board was still rainbow on the turn I could see it. No problems in pushing here. I think he calls this a large percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're only worried about the diamond killing my action right kyro? I have the flush ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, it's only one out that he "might" not have. Personally I don't think it matters either way. On the off chance he DOES have 2 diamonds though, I'd rather he didn't get away from it on the river if he doesn't hit, but that's very doubtful given the flop/turn action.

Then again, if you're pretty sure abotu your mid-pair read, then sure. Call turn, push river. LIke I said though, I don't think it changes your EV by much at all either way, because I'd be surprised to see the laydown very often.

Jman28 · #5 06-27-2005, 03:35 PM

Nah, I like it.

The diamond will scare him as will another overcard. The pot is plenty big, and you may get called often.

JoshuaMayes · #6 06-27-2005, 03:44 PM

You recently advised me that if I was going to play AQ early, I should limp rather than raise. I assumed that you were talking about early in the SNG (small blinds), did you mean early position (I was UTG+2 at a full table)?

Unarmed · #7 06-27-2005, 03:51 PM

Early position.

JoshuaMayes · #8 06-27-2005, 03:55 PM

Thanks.

Gramps · #9 06-27-2005, 04:27 PM

Why push?

By doing so, you obviously think you're ahead (you have about an x% chance times zero = zero chance of folding out a better hand). Qdxd is the only hand you're ahead of that has a decent # of outs (unless he fired two bluffs with two random diamonds, or 54). The vast majority of the time your opponent is drawing to 2-3 outs to beat you if behind (TP worse kicker, or mid-pair).

If you're going to raise, why not put some egg on his face and possibly induce a Turn call or push on his part? Mini-raise his arse. Haze him for not giving you respect and betting into you (the PFR) twice on a bluff-worthy dry board. It's surprising how often this "fu too" raise will embarass an opponent into calling with crap or coming over the top with crap. And of the few times you're beat, he would have called your push anyhow, so nothing more lost.

Or, just smooth call and try and get more chips on the River. You're obviously saying "I think I'm ahead here, and I'm willing to risk all my chips to find out if I'm right" by pushing, but it's pretty rare that, given how the action has gone, your opponent will call off all his chips with a worse hand. However, he may give you more of those chips if you take a different line, with little risk of getting outdrawn on your part by keeping him in for one more card.

adanthar · #10 06-27-2005, 04:43 PM

I do. He has a midpair or QJ and will pay off to a halfpot bet if you just let him.