No Royal in 100k Hands?

Mens Rea · #1 11-29-2005, 12:42 AM

Math makes my head hurt.

I was checking out my PokerTracker stats and noticed that in 100k hands, I've never had a Royal Flush. This includes all hands, even those that I folded preflop or at any point.

If anyone cares to give me the odds on this, I'd be curious.

Thanks.

LetYouDown · #2 11-29-2005, 01:00 AM

=BINOMDIST(0,100000,4 * COMBIN(47,2)/COMBIN(52,7),FALSE)

or about 3.95% of the time you will not have one in 100k hands.

Mens Rea · #3 11-29-2005, 01:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
=BINOMDIST(0,100000,4 * COMBIN(47,2)/COMBIN(52,7),FALSE)

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

LetYouDown · #4 11-29-2005, 04:29 AM

To put it simpler: The probability of getting a royal is 1/30940. The probability of not getting a royal is 30939/30940. So:

(30939/30940)^100000 = ~3.95%

Tom1975 · #5 11-29-2005, 10:34 AM

Of course this assumes you play every hand to the river. There may have been times where you would have had a royal but didn't stay in the hand.

LetYouDown · #6 11-29-2005, 10:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This includes all hands, even those that I folded preflop or at any point.

If anyone cares to give me the odds on this, I'd be curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course this assumes you play every hand to the river. There may have been times where you would have had a royal but didn't stay in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]