NCAA 10/27 Action Point bet

[MHoydilla]

I got:

VT -12 20 point gap 440 to win 400 (5dimes)

My thoughts on tonights game are, VT needs the win for there national tittle shot and will very rarely lose this game outright. My guess is that most of BC's covers will be a loss outright by 3-10 pts meaning a loss on action points of 2-9 pts. I think if VT covers the may win by 13-35 giving me a reasonable chance hit my limit of 20 pts. I think if I win my average cover will be much bigger than my average loss, so I got VT big. Anyone have any thoughts?

[MHoydilla]

Bumping this post as I really like V Tech tonight.

[MCS]

How exactly do action point bets work?

[MHoydilla]

Action points pay-off in relation to the final outcome vrs spread.

Example:
Tonights Game I bet VTech -12 $20 a point with a 20 point gap for a possible win of $400 or a max loss of $440. Every point VT wins by over 12 up to 32 (20 point gap) I win $20, but every point they dont cover by I lose $22.

Possible final scores with unit results on VT -12 vrs BC:


VT 47
BC 24

VT wins by 23-12 pt spread = 11 point cover +11 units on VT, -12.1 units on BC


VT 24
BC 17

VT wins by 7, but fails to cover the spread by 5 making VT -5.5 units and BC = 5 units


VT 35
BC 3

VT wins by 32 - 12 pt spread = 20 unit win for VT, -22 units for BC

On 5 dimes you can bet as little as $1 a point with a min gap of 5 points and a max of 20 pts.

[MCS]

Thanks.

I understand the type of probability distribution for possible final scores that would make for a good action point bet. However, I don't know enough about reality to know if this game fits the bill.

It seems to me that in general you would want to bet the dog in these action point bets, because there will be a lot of games where the dog doesn't cover but gets close, e.g., VT might allow BC to lose by "only" 14 tonight despite being up by 28 fairly early. This means that VT will not max out as often as BC will. Just my intuition though.

Mabe that's why you got -12. They have to adjust the number downward to account for the fact that the dog will often almost cover, and the favorite won't necessarily pile on points much beyond the spread.