Top Set in Unraised Pot

[donkey]

2/4 NL full table

I have 400, villain has me covered. He seems solid.

I limp UTG with 99. 2 limpers behind me. Villain completes in SB.

(pot size: 20) Flop is 975 with 2 hearts. Villain leads for 20. I call (?!?). Everyone else folds.

(pot size: 60) Turn is an offsuit deuce. Villain leads for 40. I raise to 160. Villain minraises to 280.

Minraises make my head spin. what do I do?!?

[redtrain]

ez push (duh). Also, i would have raised the flop if he's capable of bluffing with a draw.

[maranello11]

If you hate money fold, otherwise go all-in

[Leptyne]

Four players see a limped pot and you are second to act with top set. The flop contains a made straight and a flush draw and you're going to give the two players behind you another card for $20?. This is the kind of play that snowballs, i.e. when you call the two players behind are encouraged to draw because of their increased odds. I think this a hand that demands protection and a pot sized raise to $80 would have been appropriate. In this case it would be $60 back to the SB and you play poker.

This is not a good flop for you and you want to keep in mind Brunson's "never lose your stack in an un-raised pot". I think a small minraise would have been better.

So what's your image? Does SB put you on a steal, a set, or a semi-bluff draw?

I really have a hard time putting SB on a made straight. The 2/3 pot lead looks weak with a flush draw on the board. I think you have to push.

Whatever you do, take Gomberg's advice and note what the post-flop minraise means to this player.

[Shaun]

He almost certainly has 6-8, and now you are getting just over 4-1 to call. You're stuck in this pot. If you call the 120 more, you have 220 left and the pot is 500, so I think you can call and hope to fill up on the river. I really don't see how you could fold because you are getting over 4-1 already and probably get paid on the end if you fill. On the other hand, if you call and miss it will be tough to fold your last 220 with over 700 staring you in the face.

You can't fold, and I don't think pushing is good either. See the river and suck out. If the board doesn't pair "fold" but I'm sure I'd donk off my last 220 anyway in reality. I hope it worked out.

[Shaun]

[ QUOTE ]

I really have a hard time putting SB on a made straight. The 2/3 pot lead looks weak with a flush draw on the board. I think you have to push.


[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably the idea. What hands (poster's holdings) cold-call this flop? Betting 2/3 pot begs to be raised. Think of all the hands poster will take a stab on the turn with. Maybe an overpair. Maybe a pair and nut flush draw. Maybe two pair or a set. The thing is, poster can only have so many hands to cold-call this flop, and many of them will raise this weak turn bet.

If the SB is a thinking player he knows this and may be enticing a raise. Of course, he could be doing this with 97, 55, 77, or a lot of other hands that the second nuts beats, so, yeah, I guess pushing is the way to go, but I'm just saying a 40$ turn bet doesn't mean 99 is easily ahead here neccessarily.

I suppose getting 4-1 and getting 2.8-1 on the river even if you don't fill up, pushing is the best play, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the nuts here.

As for raising big on the flop, you shut-out a lot of hands that you want action from with top set. With a hand like this I think you're willing to tempt people in the pot because you have so much potential. Smooth calling the flop might entice a player behind to raise a weaker hand and you could end up playing a huge pot with the best of it.

Anyway this is an interesting hand, I'm anxious to see what happened.

[JoeC]

This is a must-raise flop. Any other mistakes you made on the hand come back to that.

I count 13 turn cards that make you sick to your stomach... How do you play the turn when one of these 13 scare cards hits, and you aren't getting odds to draw to your boat? A good player will make you fold the best hand here too often, so don't set yourself up to get into this situation.

Sets, on scary boards in multiway pots, should essentially never be slowplayed in a game as small as 2/4NL. I don't know the thinking behind play at higher levels, but I've played a lot of hands at this level, and I can tell you that this is an unnecessarily tricky play.

Given the circumstances, I guess the turn play is fine. Call the minraise. River plays itself unless a read indicates that trip 9s might be good.

[hukilai]

Tough spot, however, your stack is not big enough to be worried too much. Yes, it can be straight, but also lower set or even two pairs. Push.

[MTBlue]

Geez does the villain have to have the nuts? You've got a every other hand he could be doing with dominated. I'm willing to be on the wrong end of a 3.4 to 1 periodically if all his other possible holdings I dominate. Btw raise this flop if the villain does have the nuts and you get it all-in on the flop you're only losing $133 compared to $220ish on the turn.

[kagame]

stop being a goddamn nit