A hand sweated by Joe Tall

[btspider]

Joe Tall sweated a session of bottomset (posted in micro). I thought this was the most interesting and wanted to see what you guys thought about the turn and river choices. Hero had no reads at the time this was played.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: bottomset is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, 1 fold, bottomset raises, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, bottomset bets, UTG calls, MP calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, MP calls, bottomset calls.

River: (8.16 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets, bottomset raises...

[TMFS9]

I really don't understand this river play. One what better hand will you be able to push UTG off of and MP is not folding an A. Also it is quite possible that UTG is playing a sneaky 8 and figured he could get in a check raise putting one of yall on hitting the A. Second while it's possible that worse hands will call there aren't that many of them. Oh and I raise the turn and reevalutate a 3 bet.

[Alobar]

I havent decided about the turn yet, but I definately dont like the river raise

[Graham Handler]

I dont think anybody is ever folding an 8 or an ace at 3/6 so i dont get the value in the raise of the river. If you put them on a draw or middle pair why not raise the turn. There are lot of cards you dont want to see on the river. You can take the free showdown or value bet based upon the card.

[billyjex]

i think this turn is a great raise/fold to a 3-bet situation.

and yeah, the river raise sucks.

[Surfbullet]

Turn raise = good. Lesser PPs, 1 pair hands, and draws will call. An 8 will often go for a checkraise.

River raise = bad. No better hands will fold, since JJ-KK is nearly impossible. Many worse hands that would have called a turn raise will fold because of the Ace on the river. A bluff/whiffed draw will fold.

Surf

[Guy McSucker]

The reasoning seems to be that hero does not want an overcall. I cannot for the life of me see why not since almost every hand that will fold to a raise is losing to him.

Guy.

[bottomset]

I'll jump in real quick with some things

first off, I don't remember anything about the turn

anyway Joe had said that UTG is most likely to be holding A5-7 when he donked the turn, and since at that point we still feel good about our hand, and don't give MP credit for something better, I'm not sure why a turn raise wasn't put in

as for the river, I did a little of the math, if UTG is ahead ~25% we will never want an overcall, its fold or raise(raising always being better than calling)

if we are ahead of MP ~20% of the time on the river, the raise becomes +EV

the other question is UTG calling 2cold on the river with A5, A6, A7 ..

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]

anyway Joe had said that UTG is most likely to be holding A5-7 when he donked the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. But once he checks the river, it's pretty clear he doesn't. MP, on the other hand, probably does have A7.

[Joe Tall]

I cant remember what happened on the turn, I don't think I said anything as I like to see how the hand is played and discuss it later or don't talk unless asked.

On the river, you still do not want an over call from a hand like A5,6,7 which as this hand played out, sure seemed so from UTG. If I remember, Mp was a little tricky for the brief amount of hands that were played against him as I remember bottomset's position at the table being good. Which is something I always consider and talk about. Not only table selection, seat position is key to winning poker.

It is an interesting hand, and I welcome all discussion.

Peace,
Joe Tall