10/20: blind defense round 3, part 2 - A9o

Surfbullet · #1 09-11-2005, 12:08 PM

Villain is 40/33/2.2 over 85 hands.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Surf

dave44 · #2 09-11-2005, 12:51 PM

I don't understand your flop raise at all. I probably would have peeled on the flop only due to his wide range of 3-betting hands. I'd then check-call that turn and probably raise the river.

Given that you raised the flop, your turn check is interesting. I assume you think he's 3-betting any made hand on the flop, which leaves unpaired overcards as his most likely holdings. That ace either gave him a pair where he probably has you outkicked or puts his KJ or KQ in a tough spot. As long as you think he'll bluff the river with most hands, its probably better to check despite the risk of free cards, but it looks close.

spydog · #3 09-11-2005, 02:47 PM

I would peel on the flop. I don't think the raise helps you and will often get you in trouble against a player this aggressive.

If I peeled on the flop then he will bet the turn when the Ace hits. I would just call that and raise the river if he bets or bet if he checks.

aflaba · #4 09-11-2005, 03:11 PM

I think the turn check is impressive, but I don't know if it is good. It wouldn't have crossed my mind.

Since a player that aggressive will bet on the river most of the time, you didn't really give a free card. You didn't really "risk" giving him a free card either, since we are playing a game of probabilities and statistics. In reality you give a way a fraction of a free card by checking behind. This fraction is still very significant though. The size of this fraction is simplifiedly proportional to the how often he will not bet the river.

The problem with checking the turn however is that you don't gain much from it. I don't see a player bluff-check-raising the turn when that Ace hits. (Am I underestimating this?)

So, what you lose when you are check-raised is only up to 3 outs for the 9:s. That is not a whole lot.

In addition to the fraction of a free card, by checking behind you lose the opportunity to value bet on the river. If you would be called on the turn, I think you should value bet the river. There you could get another call from pair hands and draw hands that paired on the river.

So in short, had you bet the turn:

You would have won--->
+A significant fraction of a free card
+Oppurtunity to value bet the river UI

You would have lost--->
-Up to 3 outs when behind and check-raised
-The entire pot when ahead and check-raised

I think the factors for betting weigh heavier than the factors for checking. That is only my estimate though.

EDIT: There is one important point I didn't mention/consider. Often you will induce bluffs on the river that otherwise wouldn't have called the turn.

To the list above:
-You don't induce bluffs that otherwise wouldn't and shouldn't have called the turn.

I now think that the check was best.

Surfbullet · #5 09-11-2005, 03:53 PM

Hey Aflaba,

I like your analysis. The last point is the most important one, however - villain will bet this river very often when I check through the turn - hands like KQ that are drawing dead, and smaller PPs that may or may not have called.

Additionally, I give myself a chance to hit 3 outs to 2pair when behind to AK-T(which certainly would c/r the turn, and I'll have to call b/c I won't know If he's doing it with Ax[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a PP or a bluff or worse A) and I give at most 2-5 outs to a hand that is paired, and 9+ outs to a FD hand, but if it will bet the river regardless I can afford to give the free card because I'll snap off bluffs.

Surf

Graham Handler · #6 09-11-2005, 04:43 PM

I understand you have a small sample size with this guy but the stats you provided are bordering on maniac status. I may have misread the hand but I assume that you think that there is good chance you have the best hand on the flop and where trying to get to showdown for a 1/2 sb cheaper price unimproved. This guy's three betting standards Im sure are huge in the small blinds and I hate to give a free card to all the draws that he could have and if he were to cr the turn so what I think have the best hand the majority of time and would happily call down. If you dont think you have the best hand on the flop you should call or fold on the flop.

Surfbullet · #7 09-11-2005, 05:52 PM

Yeah, this guys 3betting standards are real wide.

RE the flop raise:

There's a good chance I have the best hand here. I also have a couple nice backdoors I could hit, and pairing either card will usually win it for me also.

This pot is big on the flop - if he's got a hand like KJ I'd like to get him to fold sooner rather than later. If the pot were unraised I'd be happy to let him keep continuation-betting his holdings.

Surf

tizim · #8 09-11-2005, 06:58 PM

I just bet the turn here. Give him a chance to do something wacky like semibluff checkraising the turn.

Also, I don't like the flop raise against an aggressive player. Once you raise the flop, you give him the opportunity to play back at you and make you fold the best hand or a possible 6 outer, especially on this drawy board where a) he can have a good draw or b) he may think you're on a draw. Both give him incentive to play back at you when you might have a reason to continue.

mr pink · #9 09-11-2005, 07:39 PM

hey surf,

could you explain the flop raise?

edit: nevermind, saw that you did.

mr pink · #10 09-11-2005, 07:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This pot is big on the flop - if he's got a hand like KJ I'd like to get him to fold sooner rather than later. If the pot were unraised I'd be happy to let him keep continuation-betting his holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey surf,

could you explain this? you mean that if he just flat called your flop raise and gaybet at you, you'd just plan on calling down?