Did I Cost Myself a Big Bet

Pedigree · #1 03-18-2005, 06:37 PM

MP2 is ultra-aggressive. He bets hard when he has a great hand, a marginal hand, or nothing (on a bluff). MP3 and CO are both horrible calling stations that just call and call and call (CO is particularly bad). No read on BB.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Flop: (20.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, CO folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (18.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21.75 BB

Because there were four other players on the turn should I have just assumed that somebody had a J and checked/called the turn and the river? Or would you check/fold (I think the pot is too big to justify doing that)?

In the end I only cost myself 1 BB because I assumed I was beaten when raised.

tessarji · #2 03-18-2005, 07:42 PM

I honestly don't see any other way to play this hand.

You are concerned both about AA/KK from the 3-bettor, and a possible J from the persistant caller. It is rather unlikely the raiser has trips or better.

Checking in first position on the turn gives a rather odious free card to the straight and flush draws, and to two different overcards.

I agree reverting to check/call is best when you get popped on the turn, and there is a second caller.

Your gut may tell you that you are beat, but you are paying 2BB to look up the raiser in a 20ish BB pot. I feel you will have the best hand > 10% of the time.

crunchy1 · #3 03-18-2005, 08:23 PM

I think you cost yourself more than one BB on the turn when you didn't 3-bet. MP3 isn't cold-calling the turn with a J and you've already said that MP2 will bluff with nothing (incidentally the board pairing the turn is a favorite bluff spot of players that fit MP2's description).

I assume almost every time that my hand is good here and 3-bet. Worse case you're going to go to the river with 2 outs but MP3 will likely call both your raise and a cap from MP2 and I think that makes up for those very few times when MP2 actually does have the J.

3-bet the turn. Lead the river.

PokerBob · #4 03-18-2005, 08:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 is ultra-aggressive. He bets hard when he has a great hand, a marginal hand, or nothing (on a bluff). MP3 and CO are both horrible calling stations that just call and call and call (CO is particularly bad). No read on BB.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, MP2 3-bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Flop: (20.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, CO folds, BB folds, Hero calls.

River: (18.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 21.75 BB

Because there were four other players on the turn should I have just assumed that somebody had a J and checked/called the turn and the river? Or would you check/fold (I think the pot is too big to justify doing that)?

In the end I only cost myself 1 BB because I assumed I was beaten when raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am DYING to know what MP3 has.

Pedigree · #5 03-18-2005, 09:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you cost yourself more than one BB on the turn when you didn't 3-bet. MP3 isn't cold-calling the turn with a J and you've already said that MP2 will bluff with nothing (incidentally the board pairing the turn is a favorite bluff spot of players that fit MP2's description).

I assume almost every time that my hand is good here and 3-bet. Worse case you're going to go to the river with 2 outs but MP3 will likely call both your raise and a cap from MP2 and I think that makes up for those very few times when MP2 actually does have the J.

3-bet the turn. Lead the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm ... what if I was heads up with MP2, would you have just called? Do you still lead the river is MP2 caps?

crunchy1 · #6 03-18-2005, 09:22 PM

HU I think it's probably even less likely that he has the J. HU there is now only one player that he has to bluff out of the pot which, IMO, makes it more likely for this player type to raise the board pairing on the turn (side note: If he did have the jack he'd probably wait until the river to raise with the aggression you've shown).

I still 3-bet and lead the non-heart, non-ace river.

Pedigree · #7 03-19-2005, 03:02 PM

MP2 had J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for 3 jacks.

MP3 had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for a pair of 2s (I told you he was terrible).

crunchy1 · #8 03-19-2005, 03:18 PM

Interesting. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

One thing that was never mentioned about MP2 was if he was loose or tight. I assumed when you read him as 'ultra-aggressive' that this also implied a certain 'looseness' which may or may not have been correct.

I he was loose this is a good example that even the LAGs we play against will occasionally turn over a good hand. I don't think this should curb our aggression against them.

On the other hand, if he wasn't really that loose, I think I play it just the way you did. I'm not reccomending 3-betting the turn anymore if he's anything but loose.

Pedigree · #9 03-19-2005, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

One thing that was never mentioned about MP2 was if he was loose or tight. I assumed when you read him as 'ultra-aggressive' that this also implied a certain 'looseness' which may or may not have been correct.

I he was loose this is a good example that even the LAGs we play against will occasionally turn over a good hand. I don't think this should curb our aggression against them.

On the other hand, if he wasn't really that loose, I think I play it just the way you did. I'm not reccomending 3-betting the turn anymore if he's anything but loose.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, he was loose as well as very aggressive, I don't have his stats but he was playing a ton of hands and going far with them. My thinking wasn't so much based on him in particular.

I was more so thinking, "Hey - with this many people in the hand somebody's bound to have a jack." Which may be a flawed approach...