Good time for turn sexy?

[obsidian]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Turn: (3 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks

If you think he'll bet the turn with a hand like JT or a heart draw, or other weaker draws then I like your plan to checkraise. Since most people online will bet the turn when checked to even if they have a draw, I like your play. Make them pay for their aggression.

[worm33]

i might check call and bet the river here...unless hes an idiot whos going to call your checkraise with a draw.

[obsidian]

True, but who bets a draw after my c/r? I bet the river because a 9 and sometimes an A will call.

[mike l.]

i wanted to read your post but couldnt take my eyes off your avatar.

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i might check call and bet the river here...unless hes an idiot whos going to call your checkraise with a draw.

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I really dont understand this line. To me the line on the turn is either bet/call a raise, or check with the intention of raising and call a 3 bet, and on rare occasions against the right maniacal opponent bet/3bet call a cap. Checking and calling just doesnt make sense, if the villain is drawing this is the last street we can make him pay for it. Not taking an aggressive action on the turn is just giving up value IMO.
Also there are all kinds of draws that the villain will call a checkraise with, this is a very coordinated board, obviously any flush draw/OESD will call, thats all the information the hero needs to make this play. The hero has his market, the question is what line should the hero take to extract the most value here. There is not enough information given to know which line is best, but checkraising can easily be better than betting depending on the tendencies of the villain, the more aggressive the villain is the more I favor checkraising over betting. Of course if the hero is against a maniac, then I would prefer the bet/3bet line.

Checking is awful FPS.

You need to bet here 100% of the time. If he makes it 3, then you can call and trap him for the river.

With the check you might occassionally get a bet out of a PP that you normally wouldnt but with betting you will get action from someone going for their flush or unlikely straight draw and then again if they hit on the river. Plus anyone with a PP is likely calling this down all the way regardless of your betting.

[obsidian]

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Checking is awful FPS.

You need to bet here 100% of the time. If he makes it 3, then you can call and trap him for the river.

With the check you might occassionally get a bet out of a PP that you normally wouldnt but with betting you will get action from someone going for their flush or unlikely straight draw and then again if they hit on the river. Plus anyone with a PP is likely calling this down all the way regardless of your betting.

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Anyone with a PP that isn't counterfeited would have most likely raised PF seeing as AA-KK &amp; TT-JJ are the only ones any good anymore. A counterfeited PP likely isn't calling a turn bet. A turn check will pull bets in from those likely drawing dead. Plus, and this is the reason I like it the most, it balances out the times I take shots at paired boards like these OOP with nothing.

[DeeJ]

Suppose he bets. Maybe you just call the turn, and then be sexy at the river? Or is it too risky that he'll check behind with nothing?

Obviously if he checks behind, bet the river. But if he doesn't, maybe you can get 3BB bets out of him? Probably only if he has a 9.

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Checking is awful FPS.

You need to bet here 100% of the time. If he makes it 3, then you can call and trap him for the river.

With the check you might occassionally get a bet out of a PP that you normally wouldnt but with betting you will get action from someone going for their flush or unlikely straight draw and then again if they hit on the river. Plus anyone with a PP is likely calling this down all the way regardless of your betting.

[/ QUOTE ]
Anyone with a PP that isn't counterfeited would have most likely raised PF seeing as AA-KK &amp; TT-JJ are the only ones any good anymore. A counterfeited PP likely isn't calling a turn bet. A turn check will pull bets in from those likely drawing dead. Plus, and this is the reason I like it the most, it balances out the times I take shots at paired boards like these OOP with nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh my God, the whole time Ive been posting on this thread I didnt realize there were two 9's on the board, I thought the board was QQ9x, not QQ99. This actually changes my analysis a lot. My whole analysis was based on the fact that the opponent has several hands that will call your checkraise so you already have your market, since he is likely to bet one of these draws.

With two 99's up there, this is no longer true. I would now play your hand in such a way that keeps JT and two hearts from folding. If you think those hands would fold if you bet the turn, then check, and let him check behind and hope he hits. If you do check the turn and he bets, you are actually now better off calling and donking the river becuz you dont want to checkraise becuz you dont want him to fold these hand, you want him to hit his draw on the river. If you think he will call your turn bet anyways with a draw, then you should bet here every time. Since the board is QQ99 instead of QQ9x, I think your better off just betting in case your opponent is dumb enough to still call with JT or two hearts, we know he'll call if he has a nine. Basically once the board double pairs your main objective now is to keep hands that are drawing close to dead from folding, and checkraising the turn actually induces these hands to fold which is -EV for your holding, I hope you read this and understand the big difference in strategy between what you should do on a QQ9x board and on a QQ99 board.