How often is this an Ace?

Ortho · #1 11-01-2005, 12:34 PM

Villain is tight and hasn't gotten out of line. In general, this table is tight-passive, but Villain hasn't played enough hands yet for me to have an opinion on whether he's passive or aggressive post-flop.

I know he'd do this with hands that are beating me, but whether it's reasonable to call down or not depends on how many hands I'm beating that he would do this with. I'm a bit skeptical about AA-QQ, as I think that an ordinary player would've 3-betted preflop with them. I'm leaving AK/AQ in because a lot of players in this game will just call with those hands here. There aren't very many hands with a 6 in it that he could have, so I'm not that worried about a 6.

With 3.75 BB in the pot and it costing me 2.5 more to call down, I need to win this pot like 27% of the time to break even. Against the rather limited range (AA-77, Axs, AT+), I have almost exactly this. If he'll do this with garbage, I have an easy call.

All opinions welcome.

Crypto 1/2.

Hero is in MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Folded to hero who raises. Folded to BB who calls.

(4.5 sb, 2 players) Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets. BB raises. Hero folds.

McGahee · #2 11-01-2005, 12:44 PM

I'm normally skeptical of HU flop C/R's because they're frequently draws. This being a drawless board though, a fold is a good play with 2 outs.

lufbradolly · #3 11-01-2005, 12:51 PM

I think in this instance it's an ace a lot of the time i'd fold because of your read on the opponent.

Check/call turn and river wouldn't be terrible but the pots small so i'd fold.

Good analysis though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

deception5 · #4 11-01-2005, 12:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is tight and hasn't gotten out of line. In general, this table is tight-passive, but Villain hasn't played enough hands yet for me to have an opinion on whether he's passive or aggressive post-flop.

I know he'd do this with hands that are beating me, but whether it's reasonable to call down or not depends on how many hands I'm beating that he would do this with. I'm a bit skeptical about AA-QQ, as I think that an ordinary player would've 3-betted preflop with them. I'm leaving AK/AQ in because a lot of players in this game will just call with those hands here. There aren't very many hands with a 6 in it that he could have, so I'm not that worried about a 6.

With 3.75 BB in the pot and it costing me 2.5 more to call down, I need to win this pot like 27% of the time to break even. Against the rather limited range (AA-77, Axs, AT+), I have almost exactly this. If he'll do this with garbage, I have an easy call.

All opinions welcome.

Crypto 1/2.

Hero is in MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Folded to hero who raises. Folded to BB who calls.

(4.5 sb, 2 players) Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets. BB raises. Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

The real question here is why would villian try to get you to fold JJ if he had an ace. Obviously you aren't folding a hand like AK/AQ so he's trying to get you to fold an underpair. I could see a fold if he's a straightforward unthinking tag, but if he's at all thinking you have to call down here.

bozlax · #5 11-01-2005, 01:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...if he's at all thinking you have to call down here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or unknown, IMO. This stinks of I'm-trying-to-push-you-off-a-small-pot-with-a-scary-board to me.

TomBrooks · #6 11-01-2005, 01:08 PM

No one checkraises that board without an Ace or a Six. He's telling you that he wants the pot and is willing to take it now and if you want to draw to two outs you have to pay extra for it.

It's a kind of strange play though, because HU it's +EV to let you stay in and try to collect some more bets from you. If you don't have a pocket pair, your drawing to runner runner of one of your cards which is something like 475:1 I think. So hmmmm, could this be some kind of steal? Maybe with a lower pocket pair?

Edit after reading thread... I see some others are suspicious of this play also. I think it might have been worth calling this down to see what's up.

A cheaper way to find out if your not feeling as adventurous could be to 3-bet the flop. If he raises or even if he just calls, he ought to have the Ace. Otherwise, he would have to be a Moran, but from your read that doesn't seem to be the case. If he capped the flop, I'd fold. If he just called the flop three bet, I'd probably check through the turn if he checks and bet the river if he checks again.

Edit after reading Redd's post below... Actually, a thinking player would not cap with an Ace. But a thinking player would not have checkraised you either with an Ace. So, he's either real smart and tricky with a middle pocket pair and is not giving you credit for realizing that, or he not so smart and he got excited about his holding and played it too fast. The latter seems more likely.

Redd · #7 11-01-2005, 01:18 PM

I'm curious why you expect this largely unknown crypto 1/2 player to be thinking enough to WA/WB hero here? I think this is just him getting excited with a hand much more often than an attempt to get you to fold an overpair to his pocket. I'll agree that it's a worse PP a nontrivial amount of the time here, but I'm not sure if it will be often enough to justify a calldown.

Ortho · #8 11-01-2005, 01:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
No one checkraises that board without an Ace or a Six. He's telling you that he wants the pot and is willing to take it now and if you want to draw to two outs you have to pay extra for it.

It's a kind of strange play though, because HU it's +EV to let you stay in and try to collect some more bets from you. So hmmmm, could this be some kind of steal? Maybe with a lower pocket pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Middle Pair. I think that a pair TT-77 is a definite possibility here, as I see that line taken quite a bit here with that hand. I would think any estimate of villain's range would have to include those hands.

Re: This and the post above asking why he would try to push me off JJ. My feeling from playing a lot of these tight crypto games is that the main lines for someone with an A or a 6 would be check-raise flop or check-raise turn. I hardly ever see anyone play wa/wb lines or lines indicating that they want to keep the other player in drawing slim.

FWIW, "unthinking TAG" sort of sums up my default read on players in this game, but I always wonder if I'm getting bluffed off pots here.

MrWookie47 · #9 11-01-2005, 01:24 PM

I'm with Redd on this one.

#10 11-01-2005, 01:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious why you expect this largely unknown crypto 1/2 player to be thinking enough to WA/WB hero here? I think this is just him getting excited with a hand much more often than an attempt to get you to fold an overpair to his pocket. I'll agree that it's a worse PP a nontrivial amount of the time here, but I'm not sure if it will be often enough to justify a calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, I think that at 1/2 this is most often someone with a six or an ace. I'd have to have a read on a player as tricky/thinking to call down.