Final table hand of a Party 50+5

[diebitter]

Don't sweat it, it was a good decision, poor result.

He shows anything other than an overpair, you're in good shape, and the odds of that on such a late raise were pretty low.

[adanthar]

It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

[/ QUOTE ]

What sucks about this table is that stacks are PERFECT for the hero to go nuts and steal like it's his job off the small and medium stacks, and that's the kind of situation where you don't mind risking busting early (if someone wakes up with Aces) for a chance to take over the table and steamroll your way to first. HOWEVER the position is horrendous with the big stack to the hero's immediate left. My thinking at this point is how to remove this road block. So how do we do that?

Well best case is that there is no road block. The guy's not bullying his stack and you can raise into him all day. Then just proceed with plan A and suckout if he finds a hand.

But more often the big stack knows hes a big stack and has some aggro in him. In a spot like this with 86s I would just complete as sort of a test. If he comes over the top or if he checks, you can guage his aggression levels. Also, in the ideal case where you get to a flop, you have a chance to weasel your way to a double up and REALLY be in a good spot to take things over. And if you whiff or he raises, not much harm done, just figure out a new plan.

This post was as much of a question as an answer. It's an interesting stack situation that needs a full game plan beyond this hand. Any thoughts?

Everett

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

[/ QUOTE ]

What would you do? Fold 86s in the SB.

Villain has pot odds and knows SB doesn't need a big hand to push. 35% or less of hands calling is reasonable, but a big stack could call with close to 50%. There are a lot of resaonable hands with high cards or whatever. Plus, a big stack can afford to make a marginal call to discourage attacks on his blinds. I don't see that as idiotic.

I am not convinced this is $EV-, but chip EV+. I don't have the exact payout structure, but the money is in the top places. The difference between 9th and 6th places is tiny by comparison to the jumps for the top 3 places, so I say gamble.

If you were already a big stack, a coin flip with another big stack might not be good, since you would be risking a fairly sure shot at a top place.

[adanthar]

Sigh. You know, I said this in the last thread we both posted in, but again, you've got 2700 posts, 4 in this thread, and I still have to see a shred of math.

Let's start with the fact that I JUST SAID that if he calls with the top 50%, you lose chips on the play and that the looser he is, the worse this push. Further, if he makes calls that bad, you will shortly have a big edge over him with a hand that is outright +EV against his calling range.

I've done the math on what you're asking, BTW, but I'm not posting it solely because I want to see you actually do it for once. I'll give you all the variables: there are 470,000 chips in play, an approximately 23.5K prize pool, and according to Party's payout structure, after 350 is taken out for ninth it leaves about $13K in play. However, because you are close to certain to move up at least one spot if you fold here or just complete, you can assume that everyone is guaranteed ~$500 (unless you push, get called, and lose).

Now do the math.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
It's slightly +cEV to do this, give or take. Even a real idiot won't *usually* call you with more than about top 35%, so, 2/3 of the time, you win 6000; 1/3 of the time, you have 38% equity in a 70K pot and lose about 8500 or so. (If he did call half the time, it'd be a fold.)

However, it's not +$EV, due to the microstack, the other short stack, the payout structure, and the fact that if you get called, even if you win you have no FE from people that don't get it. (No, the top heavy payout structure does not favor a push when you have a 62% chance to bust when called with a decent stack. This is also why pushing this from earlier would have been a big mistake and why you should probably never do this at a final table with a stack this exact size.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank god for you, Adanthar. I wanted to say this, but I don't feel like I have enough clout on the forum to be a dissenter.

The top-heavy payout structures of MTTs makes cEV much closer to $EV than they are in STTs, but that doesn't mean that marginal +cEV situations should always be pursued. Especially when somebody's getting anted out next hand.