AA - faced with an all in on turn

[HitmanHoldem]

Well if you're going to make a comment like that instead of giving your opinion on the question, at least make the critique an intelligent one.

Just from what I wrote, I mentioned a Villain, Hero, SB, BB, and "folds to Villain" indicating at least one person was bewtween him and Hero. This means at least 5 people were playing. You can also see that I posted seats 6 and 7, so it's fair to assume a 9-10 handed ring game.

Sorry though, I'll be more specific next time. IT was a 9 handed game btw, but I really think that's irrelevant to the question since you should've been able to pick up at least 7 people with the numbering of the seats, or at least realizing there were people invovlved besides us at one point.

Strange hand. Raise more PF. Also, do you think Villain has a read on you? Does he put you on AA after a flop minraise? Or is this common for you with lesser hands such as KQs and AQ, AK? He may be pushing the turn with JJ or QQ if he thinks that your minraise preflop could signify one of these hands. Keep that in mine. It's not always what you read on your opponent but what you think they read on you.

My instincts tell me you are ahead, though.

He doesn't have 68 or 8J. He wouldn't have club-club.

His flop call is weird. He may have TT or AT. I don't think he has 33, 77, or 99. And I can't put him on 2 pairs. (even if he did, you'd have 8 river outs for Aces up, or trip aces).

He COULD have 77 I suppose. But not 33 or 99. I'd put his range on: 77, TT, AT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA. The pot is $45 on the turn and he has $77 left...would he really push here with TT or 77? It's possible b/c of the size of the pot and the club-club on board. Let's say yes. Would he push here with AT? Uhhhhh....if he's an idiot. We'll say maybe.
Would he push with JJ, QQ, KK, AA? Sure.

So I think he could have either of these hands. More than likely it's probably QQ or JJ.

There are 3 ways for him to have TT. There are 3 ways for him to have 77. There are 6 ways for him to have AT. There are 6 ways for him to have each of: JJ, QQ, KK. And 1 way for him to have AA.

That means there are 6 ways for him to be ahead.
There is 1 way for him to be equal (AA).
There are 24 ways for him to be behind.

If you call: Of the 6 ways he's ahead, you lose $100 = net loss $600
Of the 24 ways he's behind, you win $100 = net gain $2400.

So if you played the hand 30 times, you would be -$600 + $2400 = +$1800/30 = +$60.

So I'd say on average, you will win $60 on this hand by calling. Folding loses you about $23. Also, if he has a raggedy two pair, you are still about 16% to win on the river. (Any of the remaining 2 aces, or any of the two community cards to pair that are NOT his holding, for aces up).

I'd say call. Like I said, I think he likely holds QQ.

I'd raise to about $9 or $10 PF. That's pretty standard I think. I like the pot bet on the flop. Villian's play is a bit confusing. Calling a large bet on the flop then leading out for a big overbet on the turn. Could be an overpair or some sort of delayed bluff. However, without a great read on my opponent I would lay this down. You only have one pair. This may seem a bit weak but I try to avoid getting all of my chips in with poor odds after the flop with only a pair even if it means losing out on those few times when I had the best of it.

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Strange hand. Raise more PF. Also, do you think Villain has a read on you? Does he put you on AA after a flop minraise? Or is this common for you with lesser hands such as KQs and AQ, AK? He may be pushing the turn with JJ or QQ if he thinks that your minraise preflop could signify one of these hands. Keep that in mine. It's not always what you read on your opponent but what you think they read on you.

My instincts tell me you are ahead, though.

He doesn't have 68 or 8J. He wouldn't have club-club.

His flop call is weird. He may have TT or AT. I don't think he has 33, 77, or 99. And I can't put him on 2 pairs. (even if he did, you'd have 8 river outs for Aces up, or trip aces).

He COULD have 77 I suppose. But not 33 or 99. I'd put his range on: 77, TT, AT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA. The pot is $45 on the turn and he has $77 left...would he really push here with TT or 77? It's possible b/c of the size of the pot and the club-club on board. Let's say yes. Would he push here with AT? Uhhhhh....if he's an idiot. We'll say maybe.
Would he push with JJ, QQ, KK, AA? Sure.

So I think he could have either of these hands. More than likely it's probably QQ or JJ.

There are 3 ways for him to have TT. There are 3 ways for him to have 77. There are 6 ways for him to have AT. There are 6 ways for him to have each of: JJ, QQ, KK. And 1 way for him to have AA.

That means there are 6 ways for him to be ahead.
There is 1 way for him to be equal (AA).
There are 24 ways for him to be behind.

If you call: Of the 6 ways he's ahead, you lose $100 = net loss $600
Of the 24 ways he's behind, you win $100 = net gain $2400.

So if you played the hand 30 times, you would be -$600 + $2400 = +$1800/30 = +$60.

So I'd say on average, you will win $60 on this hand by calling. Folding loses you about $23. Also, if he has a raggedy two pair, you are still about 16% to win on the river. (Any of the remaining 2 aces, or any of the two community cards to pair that are NOT his holding, for aces up).

I'd say call. Like I said, I think he likely holds QQ.

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Bump.

Anyone agree or disagree with this assessment?

Why? I'd like to hear what people think about this.

Thanks.

*Grunch*
Honestly, I don't beleive you did much wrong, besides not giving your oponent credit for a value bet on the turn. I do this all the time. I think its my biggest leak and I am constantly trying to remind myself to sit on my hands before I play back at a bet like this. I probably would have done exactly what you did, and then when he won. I would rebuy, and wait for my next opportunity to go heads up with a guy who would call 7*BB with T9o. A lot of the time I get my money back, and then some. Other times, they leave the table [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[trumpman84]

Sorry, you are right, I was just looking at the stacks.

[HitmanHoldem]

Well unfortunately if you viewed the results, it was the rag cards, two pair.

You're reasoning has some pretty good logic behind it. To answer some of your questions, he had just sat down, so unless he had been observing me before the game began, he would've had zero to no read on me since I probably hadn't played more than 1 hand since he sat down.

You say you don't think he could have 33 or 99, but I think both are possible. Many people raise with PP's pre flop, regardless of their strength, and since my re-raise was weak, he wasn't going to fold either of those.

As for the turn when he pushed, I would assume that if he had flopped or turned a set, he wouldn't be so agressive with it. It's definitly possible he has the overpair though, and decided enough was enough, and he wasn't going to let me hit what he might've thought was AK.

Regardless, his pre flop raise was random, but it was enough to trick me into thinking it was a good possibility he had JJ, QQ, or KK.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
Just the background, nothing is really known about the players since this was about 10 minutes or so into the game.

FullTiltPoker Game #344920084: Table Camden Rose
$0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em


Seat 6: VILLAIN ($100)
Seat 7: HERO ($103.55)

VILLAIN posts $1
The button is in seat #7

*** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to HERO [A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]

UTG folds
Folds to VILLAIN
VILLAIN raises to $3
HERO raises to $7

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I think the biggest mistake, in general, was this re-raise amount. Made it very easy for him to play correctly with medium pairs and such given the money ratios. Especially if you come out betting big on the flop. Also made it more difficult to narrow his range, which made the turn decision harder. It's a pretty bad mistake, moreso as it looks like you are hardly ever getting away from the hand post flop.

I would say the 9 likely hit his hand in some way, but may still be behind AA. Maybe 88, or JcQc etc. I guess it depends on whether he gives you a likely big pair for your preflop reraise. If that is likely, I fold to the 9 on the turn, but call if he made the move on a more blank looking card. In that case, I'd be more likely to have him on a weaker holding for his allin play, especially if he could have me on a wider range than just big pairs. But I don't really have a clue as I have so little info.

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
I would rebuy, and wait for my next opportunity to go heads up with a guy who would call 7*BB with T9o.

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He had already put in 3BB's, and faced a call of a further 4BBs. Hardly a donkey call, especially if op can be put on a narrow range for his action.

Reraise more preflop and fold to the turn bet. What hands do you think you beat that are pushing this turn?