Nines

[ggbman]

Then it can probably be ok, i am just to stupid to run EV calcs.

[jfresh]

just seems to me that a 44/27 lag would call down with a 6 in this situation, so i don't see him folding a T ever. so i guess what im saying is i don't think its a good bluff, but a very ballsy/thin value river bet? personally i'd check it through but i'm a wimp

[cartman]

I typically fold facing two cold on this flop.

Am I giving too much weight to the possibility that I am behind drawing to two outs?

Would you have folded if one of them had donked the turn?

Thanks,
Cartman

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
I typically fold facing two cold on this flop.

Am I giving too much weight to the possibility that I am behind drawing to two outs?

Would you have folded if one of them had donked the turn?

Thanks,
Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

on that drawy of a board I think folding is very bad. Especially with as many as 6 outs.

[cartman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I typically fold facing two cold on this flop.

Am I giving too much weight to the possibility that I am behind drawing to two outs?

Would you have folded if one of them had donked the turn?

Thanks,
Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

on that drawy of a board I think folding is very bad. Especially with as many as 6 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops, I didn't see that we have a gutshot. I take it you still wouldn't fold even without the gutshot (if the flop were T72 for instance)?

Thanks,
Cartman

[ QUOTE ]
. Maybe its +EV with bluff equity

[/ QUOTE ]

How could a value bet be +EV with bluff equity?

The bet is for value on the river if you will get called by a worse hand 55% of the time or more. The bet has bluff equity if you aren't likely to be called by a worse hand, but you might fold a better hand.

Is my reasoning correct, or am I misunderstanding one of these concepts?

[Munkster]

Based on my past experience, I think an average 44/27 LAG will almost never fold (fold <5%) their pair of TT or better to the river bet.
I would just check the river.

[ALL1N]

Yeah, dunno what he had, but the pot was already 11 bets on the river it seemed like pretty sweet bluff. These decent-postflop LAG's that I keep reading about (and playing against) are decent because they are good at handreading, and I think even a small semblance of handreading combined with a small willingness to fold makes this play valuable. I mean, come on, I'm getting 11:1 here!!

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, dunno what he had, but the pot was already 11 bets on the river it seemed like pretty sweet bluff. These decent-postflop LAG's that I keep reading about (and playing against) are decent because they are good at handreading, and I think even a small semblance of handreading combined with a small willingness to fold makes this play valuable. I mean, come on, I'm getting 11:1 here!!

[/ QUOTE ]


the A on the river is the best card. did you see Jeffage's post in MH?

[ALL1N]

The one where you were trying to convince everyone to bluff the river too??