Going with reads at low buyins suicidal to your bank roll?

[kuro]

Big stack villain on button is weak-tight, chronic limper that has been being abused by aggressive post flop play by player in small blind. I.E. Big stack has bet out when checked to and folded to pushes multiple times. Big stack folded to a push on a 2 club flop after saying you're on a flush draw eh to small blind. Villain has folded in spots when he was getting better than 2 to 1 to call. My image is pretty tight, I've shown down AQ twice, had my other raises / pushs folded to, except when I limped/called an all-in from a short stack for 1/5 of my stack with A5 suited getting 5:1 post flop I haven't done anything too loose.


10+1 STT, 1500 starting chips, in the money
Blinds 100/200

Button: t7000
Sb: t5500
Hero: t2500

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Button calls 200, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop:(t600) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t600) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Sb checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Sb checks, Hero checks, Button bets 500, Sb folds, Hero raises to 2500 and is all-in, Button folds after 15 seconds of thought.

So my question is should I ever do this kind of thing or is this a major leak? Should I just forget about making reads at low buyins because the number of hands that I see someone play is so small and I've got incomplete information because I don't see what they fold.

[Apathy]

You're half way there.

It is not enough to simply use a read, knowing someone else doesn't have much to justify pushing to steal the pot. Half decent players will call you knowing they are good and bad players will call you out of spite.

Think about this every time you are bluffing... "What hand am I representing?"

That is one of the keys to NLHE.

On the hand you give you could not possibly be holding anything but a ridiulous bluff, so it is not a good play.

[downtown]

I think I fold to the T500 river bet for two reasons.
1) I think I see big stack call here with a 4, 7, or A high pretty often. Check/check/check-raise all-in just says bluff to me and I think this even sets off some donkey alarms that are gonna get you called here.
2) I think I have a better chance to steal blinds over the next X orbits and get more chips that way, esp. with your stack still >10BB.

[kuro]

Yeah, I totally know what you're saying. I felt so stupid pushing it because I would never play the straight or the flush that way, or a king that way against anyone that had a clue but from watching him play I thought he'd fold anything but the straight or flush trying to hold on to chip lead but would call a bet that wouldn't jepardize it. I think he had queen no kicker and felt obligated to bet because it was folded to him.