All in with coin flip when not short stacked mid-late tourney?

[kuro]

I was recently in an 800 person no limit holdem tourney with 180,000 chips. 120 people were left. Tourney chip leader had 370,000 chips. Average stack is around 66,000. Payouts start at 29th spot. Generally 250,000 chips will make the final table. 150,000 will probably make 29th.

I'm in the big blind. The table chip leader is in position one with 185,000 chip and goes all in pre-flop. The blinds and antes are worth maybe 5k. Everyone folds around to me. The table chip leader is loose aggresive.

It looks like the pot before that a short stacked loose aggresive player on tilt stole the blinds with an all-in bet. I've been playing tight aggressive and I've been at the table for enough hands for that to be evident. The rest of the table is playing tight passive with stacks around 50k or less.

I think about it. I reason that he probably doesn't have a big pair because he would probably want callers with that. If he has a mid to small pocket pair I'm going to be a slight to moderate underdog if I call. Again though, why would you play a pocket pair that strong preflop when it has the potential to pay off big depending on the flop? If it's AKs I'm slightly behind. If its Axs then I'm better than a 2 to 1 favorite. If its AQu then I'm a 3 to 1 favorite. If it's a marginal hand like T9s then I'm a 3 to 2 favorite.

All things considered, I figure that this is either a play for the blinds or an attempt to get the short stacked on tilt loose aggressive player to coin flip with him. More likely than not my starting hand is either ahead or its a coin flip.

The question is do I call and hope to double up here in one bet becoming the second highest chip stack and table bully and coast to the final table with a big enough stack to possibly win the tourney or do I muck it?

I called, he turned over queen jack suited. So my read was dead on. Which made me 3:2 to win. Of course, I lost which makes me rethink everything.

[Lloyd]

This is something that I've been working on myself lately. I have felt that in the past I was CALLING way too many coin flips when I really didn't have to. I had plenty of chips and plenty of time to build up a big stack. Let others panick and take I'll take advantage of their mistakes.

This would be an easy fold for me (now). I think that we've all seen way too much TV with people always going all-in with AK or even AQ. And of course, what we see on TV is not even close to what we play online. Lay it down and wait for an opportunity where you can be the aggressor.