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Old 08-07-2005, 05:23 AM
naphand naphand is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Bournemouth, UK
Posts: 550
Default Free Showdown Play with TT

This hand continues to bug me even a few days after I played it, I fear it may be exposing a leak.

Villain has been at the table for about 3 orbits and appears LAG. He is playing a lot of hands (V$IP has been 35% so far, but over just 28 hands this can be misleading) and raising most of them. I have only seen 2 hands of his at SD - QQ and AQs, both raised UTG. It is possible he is running well.

$2/$4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Naphand is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Naphand calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, SB calls.

<font color="blue">Is this a good spot to make the free SD play?</font>

River: (7.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Naphand [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]


I am very reluctant to fold this hand with only one suspect overcard on the flop to my TT. I have few outs so would like to try and win the pot on the Turn esp. if I can fold an Ace or hand like KQ. To an aggressive player HU this must look like the perfect steal-flop, on the other hand he must figure I will call/raise with overs like AK/AQ?

Who prefers to have more outs to improve to make this play? Who prefers a flop raise? If so do you check behind the Turn and call the River, or lead-fold the Turn?

When he calls the Turn I really do not think I am ahead, but it is possible Villain is playing a PP smaller than mine.

The donk on the River is ugly. This play is consistent with a player who is trying to re-steal, but he can still have a J and be trying to push me off AJ. It is even more horrible if you give him credit for putting me on AK. Yuk.

Ideas?
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