Would you push here?

[The Yugoslavian]

That's just what I needed to laugh at before going to sleep.

Kudos to you and your late-nite picture-posting bonanza.

Yugoslav

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
something else that would be of interest to me:

assume opponent has KJ. what range of hands will he put you on given you push? what does the ICM say for him- calling vs folding?

same thing assuming your opponent has AQ, same thing assuming opponent has A4.

I'm not requesting that anyone actually do this work- but I am curious as to what the results would be.

[/ QUOTE ]

KJ and Aq are effectively the same hand vs 99. Neither of which is really germaine to this discussion. This, however, IS Jermaine to this discussion;
/quote]

Versus 99 they are the same hand. AS far as making a a call, I would guess you get a lot more calls with AQ than with KJ. AQ feels he is likely in a coinflip or dominating situations (if you don't have AA,KK, QQ or AK) while KJ is likely to be behing /dominated by a quite a few more hands.

[Scuba Chuck]

Daliman, thanks. I am embarrased to admit what I did wrong, so I won't.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
KJ and Aq are effectively the same hand vs 99. Neither of which is really germaine to this discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

i know they are the same hand if he calls.

he obviously doesn't know that- my question was- what does the ICM say for HIM, from his point of view, on his % of the prize pool.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KJ and Aq are effectively the same hand vs 99. Neither of which is really germaine to this discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

i know they are the same hand if he calls.

he obviously doesn't know that- my question was- what does the ICM say for HIM, from his point of view, on his % of the prize pool.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't feel like running the ICM on this, but I think KJ would be a big mistake to call with, which is pretty obvious, even though it runs similar. WAY too easily dominated.

[jcm4ccc]

From Daliman:
[ QUOTE ]
Unless the initial raiser was pushing tons, I would fold this with few reservations. You are getting called 90% of the time, and are almost always going to be racing at best. The BB may have to call here also if you fold, as he will have only 870 left after this hand.

Not that tough a fold at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are definitely underestimating the fold equity here. For one thing, this is a 10+1 tournament. Not many people at this level have the understanding of pot odds that you do. The villian min-raised with this hand, so I think there's a good chance he'll fold. Plus the villian can see for himself that storden is getting low on chips.

Let's do the numbers from the villian's point of view.


If he folds to the raise:
Storden 870
zonkers8 2540
giants52 2265
hero 2325
total prize pool for zonkers8: 29.79%


if he calls and wins
storden 870
zonkers8 4865
giants52 2265
total prize for zonkers8: 41.39%


if he calls and loses:
storden 870
giants52 2265
zonkers8 1215
hero 3650
total prize pool for zonkers8: 20.05%

So, if we assume that he has a 50% chance to win, then he should call, but just barely:
29.79 vs. (41.39 + 20.05)/2
29.79% vs. 30.72%

Given that:
<ul type="square">[*]This is a 10+1 tournament[*]The villian min-raised[*]The villian has been raising almost every hand[*] The villian can see that one opponent is seriously short-stacked[*]Calling is not that much better than folding, by my calculations[/list]
Then I think that the hero has pretty decent fold equity here. Much better than 10%, I would say.

As Lorinda said in a different post, "Think about what your opponent will do, not what he should do."

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
but I think KJ would be a big mistake to call with, which is pretty obvious, even though it runs similar. WAY too easily dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

many of us, even those of us who have never heard of the ICM, would fold KJ (and many other comparable hands) based on our own logic or intuition.

most of the time your aggressive (see poster's read) chip leader opponents miniraise UTG they will either have something along the lines of KJ (valuewise), or a complete monster (AA or KK). obviously there are more permutations of: KJ, 77, QTs, JTs, AT, A8 etc than their are of AA or KK.

that's where folding equity comes from.

edit: a lot of players also play AQ or AJ this way- and many probably call a push with both. still, i think the villains fold% is much closer to 50% than 20% in almost all games.

[curtains]

As I said earlier, there is by FAR a greater than 10% chance the player folds.