#11
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Re: Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?
[ QUOTE ]
If villan is able to 3bet a raiser and a caller with one pair, he is a horrible donk but you dont see this as often enough to make this call correct. I believe with this action either has set/flush draw, or possibly even the same hand. It is again possible hes making this move with Ahx but again it wont happen offten enough to make this call correct. [/ QUOTE ] Interesting. I'd put him on a made hand, like flush OR I'm a slight favorite, something like TP or MP with high heart broadway. I rule out a set almost entirely. Look at the action again. Is a set calling a mini-bet with players left to act on this draw heavy of a board? Doubt it. One pair with a flush draw he's only a slight dog and may have fold equity. I really don't know how much he understands about the game though because it's only my second hand at the table. |
#12
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Re: Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?
sorry i meant to say flush, not flush draw.
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#13
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Results
Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP2 has Ks Qh (flush, king high). Hero has Jc Kc (two pair, kings and jacks). Outcome: MP2 wins $53.10. </font> |
#14
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Re: Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?
hmm... from seeing the results i now see what i neglected to notice before, a K protecting his hand and probably hoping not to get called, but if he did, he hoped his H was a live out.
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#15
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Re: Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?
I think villan has a combo draw (pair+flush) like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Kx or KxQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
cards: win: Ah Kd 44.55% Kc Jc 54.95% I think you are a marginal favorite. I take it. |
#16
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Re: Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?
The possible range of hands including 2 pair set, small flush or pair+flush draw.
Since he called the initial min bet, I don't think it is very likely that he has 2 pair or set. Therefore, you are either close race or a huge dog. I would probably fold here. |
#17
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Re: Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?
[ QUOTE ]
if someone has the flush here, why raise so much? Even if it's a baby flush it seems a little large in comparison to the money put in and pot size. [/ QUOTE ] If I had low suited connectors Im pushing here just like he did. Hes screwed if another heart comes off. |
#18
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Re: Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?
[ QUOTE ]
I think villan has a combo draw (pair+flush) like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Kx or KxQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] cards: win: Ah Kd 44.55% Kc Jc 54.95% I think you are a marginal favorite. I take it. [/ QUOTE ] Villian limped in. I think hes more likely to have Ah2h then AhKx imo |
#19
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Re: Slight favorite or big dog. Take it or leave it?
My gut reaction here is that he has a pair and a flush draw. Not sure what other hand plays like this. A made baby flush probably leads out for the pot and a nut flush slow-plays. Any other strong hand that is not a flush has to lead out with a strong bet. However, at these stakes on Party, this guy could have any 2. Either way, I think the call is very questionable since your either a small fav or huge dog. I'd probably fold and look to get my money in the middle in a better situation.
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