NL calldown

[barongreenback]

You're playing NL holdem. Your opponent bets the pot on the flop and there's plenty of money left. Assume there is no suckout - whoever has the best hand now wins at SD. Raising is not an option at any point. Your choice is between calling on some or all streets or folding.

You judge your hand to be in the middle of your opponents possible holdings ie half his hands beat yours, half lose to yours. If he continues to bet the pot on the turn and river then you can call down. On average you split the money.

However, if he checks his bottom 25% hands on the turn and puts no further money in with them then you're only winning 1/3 of the time when he bets the turn. You can't call because you'll face another bet on the river and don't have odds. This also means you can't call on the flop because you now only win 1/4 hands( when he checks the turn) but are getting 2 to 1 odds. So you have to fold despite having 50% equity if all in.

A bit artificial, I know, but I think its interesting. You're opponent could only do this to you if he could pinpoint your hand. Information leakage at NL is bad.

Let me know if I've made a mistake somewhere.

[jimdmcevoy]

makes sense to me, I believe this is refered to as reverse implied odds

[PairTheBoard]

Maybe this is where the saying, "If you can't raise don't call" comes from.

PairTheBoard

[barongreenback]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is where the saying, "If you can't raise don't call" comes from.


[/ QUOTE ]
The odds for a call down at deep NL are bad. You have to be almost favourite. However, in this example even that isn't good enough. It's the opponent's ability to adjust to your hand on the turn that beats you. It's the gap concept but compounded over several streets.

Incidently, although I'd used the gap concept myself, until a few days ago I hadn't heard the name or seen it writen down anywhere. Where does the term come from?

[barongreenback]

[ QUOTE ]

makes sense to me, I believe this is refered to as reverse implied odds

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, you're right. As extra money goes into the pot ,your winrate goes down. Don't know why I didn't see it this way.
I think I've generally thought of implied and reverse implied odds as to do with drawing which doesn't happen here but it also apllies to players actions. Whether you have implied or reverse implied odds depends, not just on the quality of the hand you're building but on the quality of your opponents play on later streets.

[Mojojojo]

Gap concept comes from Tornament Poker for Advanced Players by David Sklansky. Not sure if that's the origin of the term or not though.