3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis

[Surfbullet]

Yeah, I don't get it either! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Surf

[TheMetetron]

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Could one of you advocating the check/call, check/fold line explain it to me? Won't he just check his draws and bet when he's ahead on the turn? And if he's aggro enough to bluff the turn with gutshots won't he sometimes bet the river too when he misses? I must be missing something.

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He is very, very unlikely to bet the river with a hand that jason_t is behind. He just won't do it with small pocket pairs or missed draws, IMO (there are some he will and this is what causes our problem of folding, but we have to).

As for the turn, we want him to continue to bluff or bet worse hands and we really don't want to get raised here, as we have showdown value against Michael Davis' range (that he won't bet on both the turn and river).

It's a very tricky situation, but it comes up fairly often at the $10/20 for me. We really want to get to showdown and this is the best way to do it.

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One more thing (I know I write too much).

When he's behind, with, say, an underpair, he *knows* he's behind, but he also knows the board is scary, and that you're a TAG who avoids drawing dead, so he's not going to fold the flop with 66, he's going to take at least one opportunity to scare the crap out of you. By bluff-raising the turn.

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MD would have to call the flop with 66 specifically to float and raise the turn - This is a dangerous board for him and most of hero's hand range is ahead of 66 so his only hope is to fold a better hand, not the best plan. It is possible, but not that likely.

Surf

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Huh? What about 77? Or 88-TT? Or suited connectors that missed? The reason why this isn't standard is it's so rare that we know our opponent so well. We know that this opponent doesn't want to go back to 2+2 and post how he drew to 2 outs.

Let's look at it from MD's perspective with all those hands. On the turn, you're risking 2 bets to win 6.6 (on the flop there were other equity reasons to call). And about half our opponents possible holdings don't have aces or kings. In fact, there's a small possibility that MD is ahead. I think floating the flop and raising the turn is correct here, if we assume jason_t has a good chance of TT-QQ or worse here.

[disjunction]

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Could one of you advocating the check/call, check/fold line explain it to me? Won't he just check his draws and bet when he's ahead on the turn? And if he's aggro enough to bluff the turn with gutshots won't he sometimes bet the river too when he misses? I must be missing something.

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He is very, very unlikely to bet the river with a hand that jason_t is behind. He just won't do it with small pocket pairs or missed draws, IMO (there are some he will and this is what causes our problem of folding, but we have to).

As for the turn, we want him to continue to bluff or bet worse hands and we really don't want to get raised here, as we have showdown value against Michael Davis' range (that he won't bet on both the turn and river).

It's a very tricky situation, but it comes up fairly often at the $10/20 for me. We really want to get to showdown and this is the best way to do it.

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Yeah, my reasoning was similar, see my posts below. The reason why I didn't recommend folding the river is it seems a little bit like navigating of an obstacle course. If you think the probability of being ahead drops off at the river, fine. This is just one hand so I felt like we had to make a binary decision. In reality, I'd call some % of the time and make it into an optimal bluffing frequency thing.

[krishanleong]

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Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

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I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

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Yes, I would definitely be looking for a fold with a bet. As I see it the only hands he can have here are a pair of A's, a pair of K's, a gutshot with JT/QJ/QT, and also maybe a 5 with 65s/75s (not sure if he would iso raise with those). Oh and 55. I haven't run twodimes or anything, but my feeling is against those hands we are in good enough shape that we shouldn't simply check/fold (since we'll often be giving him free draws to up to 7 outs, and he may semibluff sometimes).

Check/calling also seems troublesome because we are still giving the free draws, and when he does bet it means we are drawing to 2 outs a very large percentage of the time.

That leaves betting. Betting will make him fold his gutshots and also put him in a difficult situation with his K's. I'm not sure if MD specifically would fold a K here but I know many tags would occasionally, especially a weaker one like K6s. Betting will also let us see a river most of the time as it is not very likely that he has better than one pair here so we will hardly ever face a raise. So we still get a shot at our two outer.

Of course if he calls a turn bet we are beat nearly 100% of the time, if not more, so there is no reason to put more money in barring improvement.

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Thanks very much. It makes sense now.

Krishan

[krishanleong]

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Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

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I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

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Yes, I would definitely be looking for a fold with a bet. As I see it the only hands he can have here are a pair of A's, a pair of K's, a gutshot with JT/QJ/QT, and also maybe a 5 with 65s/75s (not sure if he would iso raise with those). Oh and 55. I haven't run twodimes or anything, but my feeling is against those hands we are in good enough shape that we shouldn't simply check/fold (since we'll often be giving him free draws to up to 7 outs, and he may semibluff sometimes).

Check/calling also seems troublesome because we are still giving the free draws, and when he does bet it means we are drawing to 2 outs a very large percentage of the time.

That leaves betting. Betting will make him fold his gutshots and also put him in a difficult situation with his K's. I'm not sure if MD specifically would fold a K here but I know many tags would occasionally, especially a weaker one like K6s. Betting will also let us see a river most of the time as it is not very likely that he has better than one pair here so we will hardly ever face a raise. So we still get a shot at our two outer.

Of course if he calls a turn bet we are beat nearly 100% of the time, if not more, so there is no reason to put more money in barring improvement.

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Is this a good line to take when the board goes 4-flush on the turn and you don't have a flush card? Say you have TP or something.

Krishan

[Danenania]

Yes, that seems like it would be a good time for it. Sort of a Clarkmeister's theorem modified for the turn.

[krishanleong]

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Yes, that seems like it would be a good time for it. Sort of a Clarkmeister's theorem modified for the turn.

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Everytime I bet the turn, and the bet the river and get raised I feel so completely molested. I will now check-fold those rivers.

Krishan

[B Dids]

This sucks, because I feel like a decent player is cablable of floating the flop and maybe raising the turn with a lot that you beat.

I probably bet the turn and then that's the last time I put money in the pot.