3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis

[Klepton]

if you check and he bets, do you believe him?

[rory]

check call check fold

[w_alloy]

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Quote:

FWIW his hand range includes AA-77, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, KQ, KJ, QJ, QTs so your behind most of his hands.



I'm not sure what you meant by this but for a button iso-raise his hand range is way wider than that.


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He also called the flop; his pfr isnt the only info we have on him.

Am I the only one who would check fold this? I think he doesnt peel flop with a pp below JJ, and he usually checks behind with a broadway gutshot. He also might chekc behind with a king, thinking he wants to go to showdown cheaply and you might try for a c/r here. If he checks behind I check/call river.

Edit: I think it is really important to his range to know what kind of player co is.

[Michael Davis]

"Edit: I think it is really important to his range to know what kind of player co is."

I think the only information you need is that the CO open-limped.

-Michael

[w_alloy]

I understand what you mean, but there are 70/10/.2 players I would isolate here with like 40% of hands and there are 35/10/1.8 players who play well post but will still open limp, and I would isolate them with like 18% of hands.

[fearme]

michael davis has aa, he is the greatest player ive seen on here, he slowplayed preflop, waiting for the turn pop
michael is a great player and i would fold everything against him except trips

[dave44]

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check call check fold

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I think your giving him a free card that he'd love to have too often by checking the turn.

[krishanleong]

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Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

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I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

[me454555]

How wide do you think his range of hands is? After he calls the flop bet, I can't see his hand range being much wider than this and I'd even narrow it down and say that he tosses pps like 99, 88, and 77 b/c they are behind every legit 3 betting hand.

For this reason I think you've either gotta bet and fold to a raise or check fold. Check calling doesn't make much sense b/c Michael isn't likely to bet a hand you are ahead of. Most hands you are ahead of he just takes a free card.

[Danenania]

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Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

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I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

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Yes, I would definitely be looking for a fold with a bet. As I see it the only hands he can have here are a pair of A's, a pair of K's, a gutshot with JT/QJ/QT, and also maybe a 5 with 65s/75s (not sure if he would iso raise with those). Oh and 55. I haven't run twodimes or anything, but my feeling is against those hands we are in good enough shape that we shouldn't simply check/fold (since we'll often be giving him free draws to up to 7 outs, and he may semibluff sometimes).

Check/calling also seems troublesome because we are still giving the free draws, and when he does bet it means we are drawing to 2 outs a very large percentage of the time.

That leaves betting. Betting will make him fold his gutshots and also put him in a difficult situation with his K's. I'm not sure if MD specifically would fold a K here but I know many tags would occasionally, especially a weaker one like K6s. Betting will also let us see a river most of the time as it is not very likely that he has better than one pair here so we will hardly ever face a raise. So we still get a shot at our two outer.

Of course if he calls a turn bet we are beat nearly 100% of the time, if not more, so there is no reason to put more money in barring improvement.