AQo hand - turn decision (playalong)

[Dave G.]

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You are getting 6.5:1 when its back to you. This could be a weaker ace, but not likely. It's more likely to be two pair, a set or a flopped flush. Without a further read on villain I'm not going to assume he's tricky enough to bluff-raise.

My instincts say to call down. We can improve to a hand that can win if we are behind two pair or something, and without knowing much about villain, I'm not ready to fold top pair just yet. I expect to pay off most of the time.

I'd like to break this down mathematically though, so here goes. If villain has a set or a flush you are drawing dead. In terms of probability, the chance that villain was dealt 2 spades is roughly 4.3%. The chance that he was dealt a pocket pair that is now a set is about 0.8%. The chance that he has two pair is about 1.7%, and the chance that he has a random ace with an unpaired kicker is about 3.4%. However, this is villains least likely holding, so we can halve this value to 1.7% to try for a more accurate estimation.

It is reasonable to conclude that villain wouldn't be playing this way with much else, unless he's a complete donk. So if we conclude that these are villains only possible holdings at this point and weight the probabilities accordingly, we end up with: 50.5% chance of a flush, 9.5% chance of a set, 20% chance of two pair and 20% chance of a lone ace.

~60% of the time we are drawing dead.
20% of the time we are good.
20% of the time we have 9 outs to a better two pair, which corresponds to a 17.3% chance of improving.

It will cost us 2BB to show down from here. So the EV of calling this down is:

(-2)*0.6 + (-2)*(0.2)*(0.827) + (7.75)*0.2 + (7.75)*(0.2*0.173) = +0.28 EV.

It's pretty close, and given the inaccuracies involved in estimating his likely holdings, I'd err on the side of calling down here. (And hopefully the math is done correctly too...)
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[MrWookie47]

We're getting almost 4:1 on calling down. I think it's pretty easy to come up with 1 hand we're ahead of for every 4 we're behind that could be played this way. With a better read, it'd be an easier decision to either fold now or to call down.

[NAU_Player]

[ QUOTE ]
In white:<font color="#FFFFFF">
You are getting 6.5:1 when its back to you. This could be a weaker ace, but not likely. It's more likely to be two pair, a set or a flopped flush. Without a further read on villain I'm not going to assume he's tricky enough to bluff-raise.

My instincts say to call down. We can improve to a hand that can win if we are behind two pair or something, and without knowing much about villain, I'm not ready to fold top pair just yet. I expect to pay off most of the time.

I'd like to break this down mathematically though, so here goes. If villain has a set or a flush you are drawing dead. In terms of probability, the chance that villain was dealt 2 spades is roughly 4.3%. The chance that he was dealt a pocket pair that is now a set is about 0.8%. The chance that he has two pair is about 1.7%, and the chance that he has a random ace with an unpaired kicker is about 3.4%. However, this is villains least likely holding, so we can halve this value to 1.7% to try for a more accurate estimation.

It is reasonable to conclude that villain wouldn't be playing this way with much else, unless he's a complete donk. So if we conclude that these are villains only possible holdings at this point and weight the probabilities accordingly, we end up with: 50.5% chance of a flush, 9.5% chance of a set, 20% chance of two pair and 20% chance of a lone ace.

~60% of the time we are drawing dead.
20% of the time we are good.
20% of the time we have 9 outs to a better two pair, which corresponds to a 17.3% chance of improving.

It will cost us 2BB to show down from here. So the EV of calling this down is:

(-2)*0.6 + (-2)*(0.2)*(0.827) + (7.75)*0.2 + (7.75)*(0.2*0.173) = +0.28 EV.

It's pretty close, and given the inaccuracies involved in estimating his likely holdings, I'd err on the side of calling down here. (And hopefully the math is done correctly too...)
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potd. good job

[MrWookie47]

Your math is correct, but I could pretty easily see a villain with a pair and one spade raising here. That does nothing but help the case for calling down.

[imported_The Vibesman]

As I said, I'm calling more for information than anything else. It's not a standard play for me, but I would like to know about my opponent here. Assuming I'm going to be sitting at this table for a while, I'd like to know what my opponent will coldcall with and if he has been betting straightforward or not. If he turned a set, that's info to me. If he coldcalls w/ Q9 suited that is also info to me. If he was willing to call the flop and raise the turn w/o a spade, again, info. He's going to be acting after me, I need to know a few things. Here I've got a top pair hand and the ability to close the action at one bet on this turn and the river, so it's as good an opportunity as any to look him up and see what he's betting.
Maybe my opinion is colored by the fact that I've been getting bluff-raised a lot lately.
Plus, the pot is small when the turn action starts, but it's getting to the large point when he pops the raise.

edit: and reading Dave G's post made me happy. Nice post, dude.