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#21
11-18-2005, 06:50 AM
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Re: $2/$5 Straddle Defense
[ QUOTE ]
For the most part these points are good but I dont think they all hold true - [ QUOTE ] 1. We might have the best hand. I don't want to call this bet, and then call half-pot, half-pot when a queen hits on the turn and be shown AQ. [/ QUOTE ] Cost of protection vs a 6 outer is too high; sure, some times he will be bluffing with a ~6out draw; sometimes he hits; and sometimes we pay it off. That parlay is very small compared to raw 100$ risked on the flop to prevent this. [/ QUOTE ] Perhaps this argues for a smaller raise? Typically, I raise a bit less on drawless boards like this one, but the guy just seemed SO FRIGGIN WEAK that I didn't think about it. I thought that his most likely hands for this bet were small pocket pairs or maybe a hand like A9 or 9T. I didn't think that an overpair was likely at all, mostly because he didn't seem confident at all about his hand. This could just be his donkishness, though. Villian seemed pretty weak tight, and I figured that he would fold most of his one-pair hands. Better, or worse than mine. Mostly, I just wanted to end it, and was worried because I had no idea which cards in the deck hurt me. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 2. We will occasionally fold a better hand despite our image. A tight player can talk himself into a fold with a hand as good as TT, reasoning that the maniac hero has been setting us up by showing down all that junk. [/ QUOTE ] I dont agree with this at all. TT never folds, esp live, esp.considering image and straddle scenario. A weak 9 that is somehow in there may fold, or 88. Really this is my biggets problem with a flo praise, it's technically a bluff but only folds out like 98 or 88 routinely, if even that. Also, saying because of Jim's image you'd expect him to do the opposite is actually backwards logic; the term 1st level fool- assumption holds true in most small to mid level games. That is, once someone sees something, they assume you'll do it next time. Thus, if Jim is a bluffer, he'll always be a bluffer to most of these opponents. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I failed to consider long enough in the hand. Considering how weak he appeared, overpairs seemed very unlikely, and I don't really know how many other hands that are better than mine fold (although I agree with you that 88 and most 9s will fold), although I may be able to string along an underpair. The overcard draws seemed plausible (trying to make a weak steal attempt at me), but not terribly likely from this player. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 3. We reserve the right to bomb the turn when checked to (almost 100% guarantee). This is live poker where it's pretty easy to get a read on weak players. Some people need two barrels fired at them before they'll fold the worst or second worst overpair. I'm not saying this is the proper play, but we do reserve the right. [/ QUOTE ] This is the one advantage bigtime of raising hte flop; forcing opponent to play a big pot when they dont have a hand to warrant it. Problem is, they're not deep stacked enough to really put this into effect. (Ie, a flop raise if they each had 2k shows that potting the turn may mean he's calling his stack on the river; that way, TT would be more apt to fold) [/ QUOTE ] This is, of course, an inherent problem with straddled pots in capped buy-in games. The only time I would have continued with a big turn bet on this hand was if a good scare card hit (An A is probably the only one) or if I improved (only 5 outs...). If a 9 hits, that's a pretty good scare card, but it's also very likely to have improved him. I suppose that a good read could come up, though. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 4. We reserve the right to take a free card (again 100% that we are being checked to). The benefit of this is obvious. [/ QUOTE ] Benefit is obvious, but if opponent bets 30 on the flop, he'll probably charge us less then the 100 it cost to buy the free card anyway, so this value is lessened. Way I see it, you're building the pot with little folding equity, cutting off any bluff, and really protecting against a small range of hands (those AQ) type which dont have tremendous pot equity. (Or implied odds; if a Q lands, are we really calling down too much?) I call here on the flop because I may have best hand, if not, I have OK odds to draw (not good, but good enough). We have enough behind to get a better read on the turn, we well. [/ QUOTE ] The free card on the turn was not something that I was considering, since my draw is so crappy, although that T made it look a lot more appealing. You both bring up some interesting points... My intuition tells me that it's close, with a smaller raise being better than the raise I made. I'd have to run some EV calcs... and I don't think I'm going to. 
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#22
11-18-2005, 06:51 AM
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Re: $2/$5 Straddle Defense
[ QUOTE ]
I would have bet $130 on the flop anyway if he checked to me. I'm not going to allow any sort of less than one quarter pot bet on the flop to freeze me up. I'm just gonna ignore that bet and take the initiative back with authority. [/ QUOTE ] This sums up my reaction at the table quite nicely, although I probably would have only bet $90-$100, considering the board texture.
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#23
11-18-2005, 09:45 AM
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Re: $2/$5 Straddle Defense
Can you tell me what he had? I'm thinking he had a set because he was afraid you might check behind with your possible overpair with the 4 straight on board.
Thinking about his river bet makes me think that raising for value would be correct only if he'll occasionally fold a set.
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#26
11-18-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: $2/$5 Straddle Defense
I just call the flop. He's not going to fold any better hand against you and if he's bluffing I want him to keep doing it. I probably call down all the way. Except when you hit two pair on the river, I would raise and fold to a re-raise.
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#27
11-18-2005, 04:43 PM
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Re: $2/$5 Straddle Defense
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i think calling the flop is the best play [/ QUOTE ] i think getting drunk with the redneck and watching NASCAR is the best play [/ QUOTE ] I had not considered this, although I was about 4 beers and a long island deep.
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#28
11-18-2005, 04:48 PM
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Re: $2/$5 Straddle Defense
[ QUOTE ]
I just call the flop. He's not going to fold any better hand against you and if he's bluffing I want him to keep doing it. I probably call down all the way. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I'm now thinking that this may have been the best line. [ QUOTE ] Except when you hit two pair on the river, I would raise and fold to a re-raise. [/ QUOTE ] I assume that you mean if I had taken the calling down line?
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#29
11-18-2005, 04:50 PM
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Re: $2/$5 Straddle Defense
Yeah.
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#30
11-18-2005, 04:55 PM
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Re: $2/$5 Straddle Defense
Given your image, I think villian is calling with a lot of hands here. I think 98s and T9s are his most likely holdings. The 1/4 pot bet on the flop just screams I'm scared.
I think T9 is his most likely holding given his turn and river play, he checked the turn trying to trap you and then lead on the river for a nice sized value bet.
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