Question about metagame considerations and future value

einbert · #1 09-03-2005, 05:12 AM

NOTE: I didn't actually play this hand. It's a hypothetical hand, and the purpose of this thread isn't necessarily to discuss specific decisions made by the Hero here.

5/10 6max 6 handed game.

I'm on the button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. It's folded to me and I raise. The SB folds and an unknown but seemingly loose and passive player calls in the BB.

2 players to the flop
Flop: (4.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB checks, I bet, SB calls

Turn: (3.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, I bet, SB calls

River: (5.16BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, I bet, SB checkraises, I call

Final pot: 9.16BB
Results:
SB shows 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for a failed bluff attempt on the river, and my pair of jacks takes down the pot.

The first question is, what percentage of the time do you think I'm going to win the pot after the SB checkraises me on the river?

Here is the big question. Now that I have the additional info that I have gained (relative to me folding to the river checkraise) how much is it going to benefit me in the future? How many hands are we going to play together, and how much more EV am I going to be able to squeeze out against him based solely on my knowledge of his hole cards and how he played them this hand that I wouldn't have gained if I had folded to the river checkraise?

Thanks.

wheelz · #2 09-03-2005, 05:21 AM

Well, considering you called the river check-raise this hand anyways, I don't think it'll help that much. It looks like you would've called in a similar situation even without this info.

I'd say you have the best hand 6-7% of the time

einbert · #3 09-03-2005, 05:24 AM

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Well, considering you called the river check-raise this hand anyways, I don't think it'll help that much. It looks like you would've called in a similar situation even without this info.

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Very good point. Thank you.

helpmeout · #4 09-03-2005, 05:31 AM

I'd probably check behind on this river cos of many linking cards. Lots of 98s T9s that if they havent made 2 pair or a straight they probably arent calling a bet.

I think you are ahead maybe 10% of the time here but it is good to call slightly -EV situations on the river as it may cost you more EV in the future when you fold a winner.

It is definately good to know which opponents will bluff, you cant really put an amount on it though. If he is really thinking he will now know that he will get paid off more after being caught.

JoshuaD · #5 09-03-2005, 05:35 AM

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I think you are ahead maybe 10% of the time here but it is good to call slightly -EV situations on the river as it may cost you more EV in the future when you fold a winner.

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We're specifically wondering how much we can expect to make up, on average, from making this -EV call.

That is, how much can a call be -EV and still be right?

einbert · #6 09-03-2005, 05:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It is definately good to know which opponents will bluff, you cant really put an amount on it though. If he is really thinking he will now know that he will get paid off more after being caught.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think one key aspect of the situation is that even after I caught him, it is almost impossible to predict what "level" he'll be thinking on in the future. Will he stop bluffing me after this? Seems likely. But what if he just keeps bluffing me, because that's the way he likes to play? That seems likely as well. If he's really thinking, he'll probably try to make plays that look like bluffs when he has a strong hand. If not, he might stop bluffing totally or he might continue making dumb bluff plays.

Because of all these things, I don't think I can really change my play against this guy very much in the future. And there's a good chance I'll alter my play incorrectly based on it. Therefore I don't think this knowledge is going to make me much future money.

JoshuaD · #7 09-03-2005, 05:38 AM

Einbert: I think most of the value from snapping off this bluff comes from people giving you more respect, and by putting the bluffer in his place.

He'll most likely play a more passive, less imaginitive game after you snap off his bluff, which translates to money in your pocket. When he makes that river raise again you might have to call it, but he is much less likely to put you to the test at all now that you've beat him once.

I think any players who actually watch the hand will be affected similiarly.