wow this one is very hard i think...johnnybax hand from bellagio 15k

[freehat]

I think the initial flop bet is poor. The pot is 3500 and Bax only bets 1500, stacks are deeper here than in regular tournaments so he should look to build the pot quicker and bet 3000. Then he can push the flop after a raise or look to cr the turn all-in.

The way the hand was played I really think he should call the flop raise and look to cr the turn all-in. Based on prior play the villain most likely is not on the nfd so it can be a variety of hands that includes sets, top pair, over pair, and bluffs. The pot would 12.5k on the turn so if opponent bets the turn for around 8-9k bax can then cr the turn all-in.

You make a great point. I reread the original post and nowhere does it suggest opponent is super tight preflop, and that is what I was assuming. The more I reread it, the more it appears that AsJx could be likely, but I still think opponent is stronger than that.

[adanthar]

In order to call a 3 bet and then push the turn when a spade hits with AsJx, the opponent would have to be one of the biggest donkeys ever to play a buyin that large.

Well, maybe not since there are plenty of giant donkeys to go around, but still pretty damn big.

[PFrese]

I think he blew this on the flop. He should have reraised all in. By only minireraising, he GAVE the villian the proper odds to call to his flush draw on a silver platter. I think he needs to make a MUCH larger reraise (PUSH) on the flop. Why give the odds? The only time I make a minireraise is with the near nuts or the nuts on a non-drawing board. second set is not nearly strong enough on this board.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
In order to call a 3 bet and then push the turn when a spade hits with AsJx, the opponent would have to be one of the biggest donkeys ever to play a buyin that large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Any spade is a great semi-bluff card, particularly if this guy is cognizant of his image. Do you think he can get paid if a fourth spade hits if he holds AJ with the spade?

[MLG]

That flop 3-bet is bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuutal. You have to either flat call or make an actual 3-bet to like 15k.

After the small reraise, just check the turn and try to get to showdown without going broke.

[sirio11]

I agree with MLG, I like the flop bet, but either you just call the raise or make a bigger reraise. I prefer to just call the flop raise and then bet strong a non spade turn and check a spade turn. This way if he has the flush, he can't put you in a pretty strong hand and so his turn bet will be not that big (he may possible even check !!) and you get to see the river card.

[Goodie54]

When I originally responded to the post, I was under the impression that there was no flush possible. This is not an easy hand and I'm really not sure at this point whether I'd call or not. It sure looks like Q10 of KQ of spades. I think I fold as well with this new information.

Very tough hand, though.

Peace

Goodie

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In order to call a 3 bet and then push the turn when a spade hits with AsJx, the opponent would have to be one of the biggest donkeys ever to play a buyin that large.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. Any spade is a great semi-bluff card, particularly if this guy is cognizant of his image. Do you think he can get paid if a fourth spade hits if he holds AJ with the spade?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah OK, it's a good semibluff if you get to the turn vs. the obvious set and then assume the guy with the set can fold it. That 3 bet is just ugly and there's no way a competent AJ calls it (unless he has that in mind, which is uglier).

[Exitonly]

yea that almost min 3 bet is pretty ugly, i think i like making it 15 or 16k, and pushing the turn. But calling and keeping the pot manage-able sounds ok too.

edit: and the way that the actual hand played out, i think it's probably a fold, but one i'd never be able to make. (Well, i don't think)