ATo preflop - I have no idea

[@bsolute_luck]

it's still funny how much discussion preflop gets especially on this particular hand when there are gounds for all 3 actions and when no table conditions or reads are given in the OP. and to criticize anyone for any of these actions should probably not be done. i've done all 3.

the flop is borderline as it gets and again you have cases for calling and folding. given that you hold A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and not the T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], i could make the loose call on the flop and i don't think folding is bad, but it is very close simply because you could be reverse dominated if you hit your Ace, so i give you .5 for a goofy straight, 1.5 for BDFD, and 1.5 for your Aces: 3.5 outs which needs ~13 and you're getting 11. you have 2 ppl in, so it is possible, but uber sketchy. personally i like the fold.

[jaxUp]

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many of you are not considering the fact that this is 8-handed and he is closer to the button than a 10-handed UTG+1.


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nice catch.

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also, draws to pairs and backdoors do not have good implied odds. you are not going to war on the turn when you catch one pair.. nor will you usually get much action on the river when a one card straight is on board or the 3-flush is out there.

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Yeah, this is interesting. I was also thinking, how happy are we about our BDSD? We will not likely be able to call a turn bet anyways.

and to grapabo: that was a pretty solid argument for pf. Given that, and it being 8-handed, I think we can raise this bad boy.

[mvoss]

You're absolutely right, my comment about nice implied odds is clearly wrong.

[btspider]

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Yeah, this is interesting. I was also thinking, how happy are we about our BDSD? We will not likely be able to call a turn bet anyways.

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I'd only count the 9's and Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] towards our BDSD.. with the hearts completing the straight needing a further discount.

the standard 1.5 is far too optimistic here and only applies to 3-card straights. Once you introduce gaps, and duplicate outs with other draws, you need a few discounts.

absolute is right, PF w/o reads is a bit of a moot discussion. you can't go terribly wrong with any of the 3 choices.

[Rev. Good Will]

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I remember a lot of discussion about wether to raise of limp hands like ATo KQo and KJo from EP. Especially I remember some excellent posts from GrunchCan arguing a preflop raise with these hands. Unfortunately it seems that I'm not intelligent enough to find these posts using the fantastic search function, maybe some of you guys remember these posts as well? When I put what I remember together with the fact that this game is 8-handed, I'm voting for a raise with this PF. Could you please tell me why we don't want to raise PF here?

Edited to say that I'm not trying to be a jerk here, I'd just really like to know why it's wrong to raise this preflop.

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A few months ago, I asked Grunchcan the same thing. What Grunchcan was talking about its essential to open-raise or fold OS broadway cards PF to (I believe) discourage a multiway pot(somebody check me on that?)

I suppose I would have no problem raising in hero's spot if UTG was a notably bad player, and the only possiblity of a CC to my raise are from donks with much worse hands.

In none of the books I have read is ATo described as a hand to raise EP. SSHE warns specifically against raising this hand EP, and suggests folding the hand in all TAG scenarios, and warns about raising it in "typical" games. A raise is afforded ATo when it is in MP3/LP, but not if it follows two limps; in fact, it is suggested over calling two limps may be incorrect. Raising the hand is discussed in conjunction with blind theft. HEFAP warns against playing AJo in aggressive games, so obviously ATo is even more suspect. HEFAP also cautions players to discard Group 4 hands entirely in strong games: ATo is the last hand in that group sequence.

The stretch from T to A is as extreme as a "gutshot" is gonna get, So considering its "outs" preflop is very dubious, imho. And nowhere have I seen unsuited holdings tabulated for their "backdoor" flush capability. With 2suited holdings, your flush will come in 6% of the time. That's almost 20 to 1; for simplicity's sake, assuming the relationship is linear, you will see your 1 card holding flush at a 40 to 1 rate. 2-gap connectors will fill 1.4% (if my source is correct) of the time, that's > 95 to 1. I cannot tell you what the odds against filling a 3-gap holding is, but it's greater than 100 to 1, huh? Adding your "outs" in these two situations seems pretty sketchy. Moreover, Miller states explicitly that ATo plays much better with a T flop than an A flop pairing. The rationale is fairly obvious.

So, according to both Sklansky and Miller, ATo should NOT raise the blinds EP; nor does factoring in the "backdoor" capacity of this hand (we're talking pre-flop) obviate the warning whatsoever.

That said, thinking about the flop from a purely mathematical perspective, you have roughly 4.5 outs at best. However, the chance that catching an A is sufficient to win is compromised by the prefop raiser and his holdings, so the odds should computed to reflect that. Let's say you have 3.5 outs, being generous. You're getting 11 to 1 to see the turn. This is slightly negative expectation, since you need between 10.5 to 1 (4outs) and 14.5 to 1 (3 outs) to play correctly. There are no implied outs, as the bet doubles at the turn.

I think this is a fold on the flop. I think this is what Sklansky means when he says you want your opponent to make the mistakes, not you.

[deception5]

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I think it is DEFINITELY a fold on the turn

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Folding the nut flush draw on the turn in a pot this size is definitely a mistake.

yes, my mistake.

[2+2 wannabe]

RRRRRRRRRRAISE 8 handed

fold 10 handed

I think calling is poor

[HouseCalls]

*grunch*
Preflop - ok
Flop - I'd give you 5.5 outs (3 overcards [A's], 1.5 for bdfd to nuts, 1 for 1 gap bdsd) This gives break even odds of 7.3:1 with pot odds of 11:1 So (even if I'm overestimating the overcard or bdsd outs) I think this is a situation where you call and take see the turn.
Turn - you picked up a the nut flush draw and a gutshot nut straight draw so you would call down here as well.
It might just be me but I find when I do the math I end up seeing the turn more than I would expect intuitively from just looking at the flop.