Bellagio 10/20 hand

[Wayfare]

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Hi neon,

Good to see you posting again. This post has tons to think about, but I think the play of this hand mostly hinges on how good this "good player" is.

What I would first try to determine here is whether this guy can have 8 outs against me, meaning, can he have made it 400 to go with KJ or J9. Only a terrible or excellent player will make that re-raise pre-flop. I suspect this player would not be capable of that play, or you would've noted his unpredictability. If he could have an OESD, I'd protect the pot with a re-raise, because there's some chance he can have other hands that he'll call with, and a number of river cards might put me in a pretty tough spot. The pot's big, so you don't want to mess around too much if he is drawing very live.

Then, I'd make sure that he's not bad enough to be raising with AA or KK here. Most good players would not make this play, since that bet is very unlikely to be called by a good player unless AA/KK is beaten, and it makes it harder for him to get away from it as the pot grows. Note: You could make an argument that if he has AA/KK, he could make that raise with the plan of not putting another penny in the pot, hoping you'll call and try a river check-raise if you have a monster. He might reason that 2500 is the cheapest he can get to the river. But, this play is very rare from a good player, I think.

So, from your average "good player," the turn raise represents either a set or a bluff, which is drawing dead (something like JJ/99) or has 4 outs (AK, or mayyyyybe AJs). If this is the case, I'd call the turn and check the river (with the intention of getting it all-in), unless an Ace or King fell, in which case I'd make a value bet of 3000 (if you think he could have AJ, you'll have to re-consider a K bet, but in any case this hand is really unlikely, I think).

So, essentially, I'm making the Bruiser-esque play of calling him and then checking, because I think it's so likely that he'll continue to bet the river if he was semi-bluffing with few outs. And of course, he'll bet a blank with TTT, and he'll pay off for sure with it if you bet 3000 on an A/K. I think a Jack is the only card you don't want to see on the river, or possibly a King.

After thinking about it some more, you can make a case for taking the same line if you think he might have 8 outs, except of course that you'd be cautious with many more river cards. The decision hinges on how likely he is to continue to bluff a missed draw. In my experience, people are more likely to follow up when they were bluffing with very few outs, rather than with many, so if an OESD is in the mix, I'd just re-raise the turn.

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Wow what a great post. Cero, how many villans would you continue to check a blank river against? Making a bluff raise of 2500 is one thing, but how many guys have the gusto to stick the next 6000 in when it is pretty clear that hero doesn't have a draw...? Also, if you call and a jack hits, what do you do?

Generally, if he has AA/KK and a blank river hits, you aren't getting another penny if you check (and he is good). There just aren't any better hands that he can bluff out of the pot. With the high probability he has AK, if a jack comes off, can you really block and fold to a push? What about the times that he has JJ/TT and he thinks he is good...perhaps the right idea is to just commit yourself to calling a push on the end?

Really tough hand.

[banditbdl]

Villain's turn raise just really strikes me as AA/KK that doesn't want to give up on the hand yet but is probably unwilling to put any more money into the pot at this point. I think your best bet is to push and hope you've gotten under his skin enough to get a bad call from him or that he backed into a set on the turn.

Can you say the name of the player (might help the hand analysis some). I think here I like a "johnny chan" (vs. negreanu) and min re-raise his raise of the turn. Essentially, this "committs" both of you to the hand, and makes it look very weakish to a hand like AA. Also, if he does smell a rat and flat calls the min-reraise, he can't lay down on the river. IMHO, it looks like is he trying to see a cheap showdown with AA/KK and will not put more money in the pot on river, thus your only chance is to raise here (unless he is a complete donkey which he does not appear to be). Also, it makes your river action much easier. Push on blank, check-call on scare scard. Also, for the slight possibility he has 1010, u will stack him.

[Matt Flynn]

Hi neon,

Flop's fine. Turn you reduced your chances of stacking him by betting $500, and you reduced your earn vs AA/KK, so presumably you think he is overaggressive for big bets. Otherwise I don't like your turn play. River I would discount OESD because it is highly unlikely. AK is possible but unlikely, and you only give 4 outs for max upside of a pot bet and thus it costs approx 0.2 pots - WHEN PRESENT - not to raise. Not enough if a raise would blow AA/KK out when they would otherwise call a river bet. Slowplaying criteria are met. You have that option. [Note: Your opponent being able to make a second best hand is not a necessary condition for slowplaying.]

If he has a set it is >90% a set of tens and you get his stack almost always no matter how you play it. You can ignore that event. AA/KK seems far more likely for him than [AK/draw hands that will fire on the river]. If he's nutty aggressive you call, then check. Otherwise your optimal strategy approaches maximizing vs AA/KK. I would visualize him having AA/KK and play accordingly.

So now the question gets difficult, because play is so heuristic. My starting point is call the turn and bet 3K on the river. You have several interacting probability clouds that you can define to confirm or disprove that "default."

Matt

[Garland]

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I've been playing a pretty straightforward TAG game, as that's all that seems to be necessary to beat this game to pieces.

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I reraised villain's $100 open to $400 from the SB w/ AsQs

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Garland

[AZK]

gar you really need to get out more

[cero_z]

Hi Matt,

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AA/KK seems far more likely for him than [AK/draw hands that will fire on the river]...your optimal strategy approaches maximizing vs AA/KK. I would visualize him having AA/KK and play accordingly.


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Good points. As I said, a lot hinges on how good this guy is, because I don't think many good players would raise AA/KK to 2500 on the turn. If you do think those hands are the likeliest, then I'd assume he took that rarely-taken line I mentioned of getting "cheaply" to the river. In this case, I think even 3000 on the river is too much, and I'd call and bet about 2000.

[Matt Flynn]

$2,000's interesting - I was trying to talk myself down to $2,500 there. We will have to further debate over beers in Tunica.

[coltrane]

hey buddy,

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I don't think many good players would raise AA/KK to 2500 on the turn. If you do think those hands are the likeliest, then I'd assume he took that rarely-taken line I mentioned of getting "cheaply" to the river.

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really?.....I see this line used a LOT.....and I think that live, and considering how deep they are, and the fact that villain has position makes this a fine play by villain on the turn if he has AA.....he just got led weakly into after hero check/called his bet - why shell up and also let him have a cheap card?.....now look, I can see the argument that worse hands are gonna fold to the turn raise, BUT, if he's ahead it's still a value bet without giving a free card, and he puts hero in a spot where he completely reveals his hand so villain will know immediately if he's beat and not put another dime in the pot.....

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
really?.....I see this line used a LOT.....and I think that live, and considering how deep they are, and the fact that villain has position makes this a fine play by villain on the turn if he has AA.....he just got led weakly into after hero check/called his bet - why shell up and also let him have a cheap card?.....now look, I can see the argument that worse hands are gonna fold to the turn raise, BUT, if he's ahead it's still a value bet without giving a free card, and he puts hero in a spot where he completely reveals his hand so villain will know immediately if he's beat and not put another dime in the pot.....

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A cheap card to what? What possible draw can hero have? He has position, and knows hero is not drawing. Why reopen the betting in this already big pot?

I agree that he could be doing this with the plan of not putting any more money in the pot. One problem is that this is not as easy as it sounds. While he can fold to a push, it will be really hard to fold AA if hero just calls, and then bets less than half the pot on the river. And villain has stupidly inflated the pot to the point where 1/2 the pot is 175 big blinds.

He is much better off letting a hand like KK or AQ take off a "cheap" card here (since they have so few outs), than he is opening himself up to losing a huge pot with one pair.

So even if villain is able to make this raise, and then fold for $3K on the river (when the pot is $7K), I still don't like this. First off, actually folding there is a lot harder than it sounds. Secondly, hero is unlikley to have many outs if he is behind (and won't be calling the raise).