Bellagio 10/20 hand

[neon]

Hey guys,

Been a while. Sorry for the prolonged absence, been in Vegas for a couple weeks, and have been partying waaaaaaaay more than playing, so not much to contribute cardwise, from my perspective. But did get over to the Bellagio to play some 10/20 NL (which is an excellent game, FWIW), and here's the most memorable/interesting hand I've played thus far.

Villain is a good player, and although he and I were somewhat at war in the few hands preceding this one, I've been playing a pretty straightforward TAG game, as that's all that seems to be necessary to beat this game to pieces. Prolly a half dozen hands ago, however, after having raised w/ JJ preflop and taking down the blinds the hand before, I reraised villain's $100 open to $400 from the SB w/ AsQs, and then bet 2/3 pot or so on a KQxr flop. Villain folded and I showed, and he said that he "had me preflop" (no [censored]).

A few hands later, I open for $80 from EP w/ QQ, suits unimportant. Villain makes it $400 to go. I call. I have $9k and villain covers.

Flop is Qxx, rainbow. I check/call $600.

Turn is an offsuit 10. I lead for $500. Villain stares me down for about three seconds, and then makes it $2500 straight.

Hero? Plan for the river?

Thanks in advance.

I'll be back later today to answer questions/respond to comments.

-neon.

[Post-Oak]

Why is this guy looking to play such a big pot? If he does have AA or KK, I think he should have just called your fake blocking bet. The pot is already huge for 10/20.

Now that he has raised to 2500 straight, when you call the pot will be $7K. And you guys will have $6.5K left.

I don't know if he would raise here with AA or KK. And if he did, I think he is done with the hand if you even call and then lead river (unless you keep it relatively small). He may think you are trying to put a play on him again, but if you so much as call, he knows you have it.

Maybe he has AK and is trying to muscle you? I just don't understand his raise.

I would usually push, hoping he reraised you with something other than AK/KK/AA and has a legitimate hand. Other times I would call and then lead river for $3K.

I don't play this deepstacked, but I think these are both viable lines.



Edit to say "AK/AA/KK" which is what I meant, not AK/KK/QQ.

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
hoping he reraised you with something other than AK/KK/AA and has a legitimate hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol?

oh about the hand. just um push, yeah that's about right. seems like your previous warring with each other will pay off...

but i would lead for way more than 500 on the turn if i had check called the flop, but i would not check call the flop, this made it sort of awkward for the money to get in. if you lead the flop, you will stack him every time he has AA/KK.

[Post-Oak]

Duck,

I really do mean that if he has AA or KK he is overplaying his hand (even more so with KK). Hero has shown strength. He raised in EP, he called a reraise, he check called the flop.

I don't mind Villain's raise on the turn as much if he has AK (nothing but a gutshot), but with KK it is pretty horrible. AA I wouldn't be looking to inflate the pot any further on this drawless board either.

So I mean that I hope villain has a set, which is the type of strength he is now representing. I of course don't disallow AA, I just think it is a foolish raise on his part in that spot if that is his holding. Because now he could be facing a pot sized all-in reraise, or a big value bet on the river. How could he fold for a $3K value bet on the river if he has AA? He can't.

He has to know that hero is not drawing, given the action and the board.

The pot is already 100 big blinds after the flop action. Why is villain looking to jam this pot??? He is trying to stack off against AQ or KK? Really he would just be opening himself up to getting stacked by a hand that beats a pair.

I think an overpair would generally call the $500 here. So this guy probably really blew it, but hopefully this is one of those rare set over set situations (cause you are assured of getting his whole stack). Maybe he turned it.

Anyway, most of the times I guess this will either be a badly played AA, or a bluff.

I just don't grasp why people don't understand (not talking about you) that a CALL can show strength. What does he put hero on given the preflop action and his check call on the flop? I mean come on, I would check that turn if checked to and especially just call if bet into. If hero has AQ - good - win a nice pot against his overplayed hand. No need for villain to reopen the betting and raise here with a mere pair.

[mgsimpleton]

i didn't say he played it well, i was just saying that AA and KK are very good. especially in live poker.

furthermore, check calling does not show strength. that is weak tight thinking. strength can be one interpretation but it is usually weakness.

[flawless_victory]

bet more on the turn, then you push.

hope he has AA.`

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
i didn't say he played it well, i was just saying that AA and KK are very good. especially in live poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you raise in this spot with AA against a TAG, and get called (we won't even say reraised), you feel good about your hand???

Maybe I just need to play more live.

[ QUOTE ]

furthermore, check calling does not show strength. that is weak tight thinking. strength can be one interpretation but it is usually weakness.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the preflop action, a check-call here sends off alarm bells in my head. I don't read it as weakness, not at all.

At least I am still king of the weak tighties [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]
if you lead the flop, you will stack him every time he has AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

they have 450 BB's and villain is a good player....this isn't party poker.....




to OP,

he's obviously testing you on the turn, problem is that the pot is now big (you'll only have a pot-sized bet left) and you're out of position....an all-in protects the pot, but there's no way he's calling without three tens......I guess my question is, how likely is that? and also how likely is it that he's making this move with a drawing hand?.....if you think you're not sure, and that he could have three tens or some draw, the safe play is to just protect the pot and just stick it in on the turn....however, if you've got him squarely on AA/KK, I like maybe taking a chance and doing something goofy like mini-ish raising him back $2500 and then betting the rest on the river.....he might not go for that either, but I think it's got some shot....

[cero_z]

Hi neon,

Good to see you posting again. This post has tons to think about, but I think the play of this hand mostly hinges on how good this "good player" is.

What I would first try to determine here is whether this guy can have 8 outs against me, meaning, can he have made it 400 to go with KJ or J9. Only a terrible or excellent player will make that re-raise pre-flop. I suspect this player would not be capable of that play, or you would've noted his unpredictability. If he could have an OESD, I'd protect the pot with a re-raise, because there's some chance he can have other hands that he'll call with, and a number of river cards might put me in a pretty tough spot. The pot's big, so you don't want to mess around too much if he is drawing very live.

Then, I'd make sure that he's not bad enough to be raising with AA or KK here. Most good players would not make this play, since that bet is very unlikely to be called by a good player unless AA/KK is beaten, and it makes it harder for him to get away from it as the pot grows. Note: You could make an argument that if he has AA/KK, he could make that raise with the plan of not putting another penny in the pot, hoping you'll call and try a river check-raise if you have a monster. He might reason that 2500 is the cheapest he can get to the river. But, this play is very rare from a good player, I think.

So, from your average "good player," the turn raise represents either a set or a bluff, which is drawing dead (something like JJ/99) or has 4 outs (AK, or mayyyyybe AJs). If this is the case, I'd call the turn and check the river (with the intention of getting it all-in), unless an Ace or King fell, in which case I'd make a value bet of 3000 (if you think he could have AJ, you'll have to re-consider a K bet, but in any case this hand is really unlikely, I think).

So, essentially, I'm making the Bruiser-esque play of calling him and then checking, because I think it's so likely that he'll continue to bet the river if he was semi-bluffing with few outs. And of course, he'll bet a blank with TTT, and he'll pay off for sure with it if you bet 3000 on an A/K. I think a Jack is the only card you don't want to see on the river, or possibly a King.

After thinking about it some more, you can make a case for taking the same line if you think he might have 8 outs, except of course that you'd be cautious with many more river cards. The decision hinges on how likely he is to continue to bluff a missed draw. In my experience, people are more likely to follow up when they were bluffing with very few outs, rather than with many, so if an OESD is in the mix, I'd just re-raise the turn.

mmmmmm.....uh, i disagree here. i think that a check-raise on the flop is the best way to play this hand...i think if you lead, the villain might just call, and might wonder why you're leading at him.....IMO, if the villain does have what he's representing, i'd checkraise this flop....he bet 600, i'd raise to around 1400, and watch him push with AA or KK....


as the hand was played, i like a real long and drawn out push here on the turn....