A Question For David S.

[Mackerel]

David,

I would like to hear your response/thoughts on the following hypothetical proposition:

I walk into your office with a winning Powerball ticket worth $300 Million (or insert more desirable prize if you prefer), a brand new deck of fair cards, and a random shuffling machine. I propose that we randomly shuffle and then select one card. If the card is the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], you will be summarily executed immediately. If any other card comes off, you get the winning ticket free & clear, no strings attached. Would you accept this proposition? If not, what odds against your losing would you need to accept the proposition?

[David Sklansky]

For me it would have to be about 10,000 to one. But I'm rich.

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But I'm rich.

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The day that I can end any statement I make with this phrase, I will sit back, light up a cuban and smile.

GG Sklansky. Now stop making more, and leave the tables to the needy [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Mackerel]

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For me it would have to be about 10,000 to one. But I'm rich.

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LOL...okay, fair enough, but that is why I gave you the option of inserting a more desirable prize (King David the 1st (well second I guess) perhaps?, first 7 time WSOP main event winner?). [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I'm sure you see what the question is driving at. This is, in essence, the gamble that confirmed atheists have accepted. If the Christians are correct that there is a sentient, living God, and he is the same God described in the Bible, then the risk of an atheistic view is eternal punishment (not just ceasing to exist). Therefore, the risk of losing this proposition is just as extreme as the hypothetical one.

OTOH, the risk to the Christian is minimal. If there is no god, then the Christian has foolishly wasted his life trying to be a good person, help others, and being ridiculed for his foolish belief, when he could've been out screwing people over for his own gain and generally just having more fun. However, when he dies, if he simply ceases to exist (which seems to be the belief of most atheists, but I certainly don't claim to speak for any of them in particular) then it won't be of very much consequence to him.

Therefore, it seems to me that it behooves every good poker playing atheist to assess the odds that he/she could "lose the bet", so to speak. Obviously, to do this will require an objective look at all of the evidence available, so that each can come up with odds that they believe are close to correct. After that, they just have to answer the question posed in the original post to see if the odds are acceptable to them. This, ultimately, is simply a personal decision of course.

Edit: I just wanted to note that I am making no assumptions about your own beliefs in the area of "confirmed atheist", David. I was just curious about what odds you thought would be acceptable for such a proposition.

[David Sklansky]

"I'm sure you see what the question is driving at. This is, in essence, the gamble that confirmed atheists have accepted."

No No No. The two biggest reasons are that other religions might say believing in the Christian God is what sends you TO hell and the even stronger refutation that you can't help what you believe and pretending will get you nowhere.

Even most theologians, I think, reject your point. Even Not Ready does.

[Lestat]

It cracks me up every time I hear this argument!

You are basically saying that theists would really prefer being able to pillage, rape, and plunder, but instead are inconvenienced into being good people and helping others as a price for God's acceptance? Do you think God does not know your true desires?

Also, do you really think God will be pleased that you took Him on a freeroll? "Hey, I had nothing to lose! It was a freeroll into heaven if I said I believed in you!".

You don't control your beliefs and God must know what your true beliefs are.

[Mackerel]

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No No No. The two biggest reasons are that other religions might say believing in the Christian God is what sends you TO hell

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That there are other beliefs in no way repudiates the general point. Atheists should be encouraged to examine all of those beliefs and make the "play" that seems most +EV to them. I do realize that this is a very loose analogy.

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and the even stronger refutation that you can't help what you believe and pretending will get you nowhere.


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Okay, I will concede this point. My example was only meant to be illustrative of a concept and was probably not the greatest choice (and besides, it's late and I'm sick!). The real point, is the objective evaluation of the available evidence, since this is potentially a very high-stakes wager. After a meaningful review of the evidence, each will have almost certainly come to a decision to pursue one belief system over the others, even if they still aren't fully convinced one way or the other. Having doubts, questioning God's existence or purposes, and not blindly believing in something just because you were taught it as a child (for reference I was never inside a church except for weddings prior to adulthood) is not a sin as I understand it. Blindly denying without seeking with an open mind, or rejecting evidence because one does not wish to believe is another matter. To the extent, therefore, of intellectually honest examination, you can help what you believe.

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Even Not Ready does.

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I haven't spent much time in this forum before, so I am not familiar with Not Ready's views on this matter. Certainly, Christians disagree on many minutia of doctrine, it is only the major points that join them all together as Christians.

I've really got to go try to get back to sleep now because I may be dying here. If I kick off, I'll try to get conclusive word to you from the other side (assuming I don't just blink out of existence). [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Atheists should be encouraged to examine all of those beliefs and make the "play" that seems most +EV to them.

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Have you done that? And you think Christianity is the most +EV play? Please explain. I would like to see which religions you have studied, in regards to eternal reward vs. eternal risk/punishment, and how you valued them to calculate EV. If you have not done that, then you are being hypocritical. Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Have you done that? And you think Christianity is the most +EV play? Please explain. I would like to see which religions you have studied, in regards to eternal reward vs. eternal risk/punishment, and how you valued them to calculate EV.

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Me too

[DougShrapnel]

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Have you done that? And you think Christianity is the most +EV play? Please explain. I would like to see which religions you have studied, in regards to eternal reward vs. eternal risk/punishment, and how you valued them to calculate EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Me too

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Thirded the motion has passed.