Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Limit Texas Hold'em > Mid- and High-Stakes Hold'em

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:05 AM
bicyclekick bicyclekick is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Morris, MN
Posts: 416
Default 100/200 blind war

4 handed 100/200. Been playing mb 20 minutes and so far only a couple confrontations hu vs the bb and I've raised and he's called and folded the flop. He might have called once and I check/folded the turn but I forget exactly what had happened up to this point. Villain is a pretty good player. He's a tight/aggro player and isn't a pounder/lag/pealer high-limit type like a lot of others.

I open Q8o in the sb, he calls in the bb.

Flop 862r

I bet, he raises, I 3 bet he calls.

Turn J

I bet, he calls.

River 6

my plan?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:07 AM
JimmyV JimmyV is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 87
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

Check-call. Standard, no?
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:18 AM
durrrr durrrr is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 81
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

bet/fold?
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:57 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

I would bet/call in that situation.

Even if he is taggish, I think you do get called by ace high type hands here on that board quite a bit.
He probably does not have a jack. He might well have a 2. If he has a jack he probably will not raise the river as he did not raise the turn.

If you check planning to call, he probably would not bluff. Thus you would give him a very clear value bet.

In rough numbers:
If you check/call you are probably ahead only 20% of the time.
If you bet and he calls, you are probably ahead 60% of the time. Say in 18% of the cases he hold a 6, then he raises and you'd call, so in 18% when you are behind, you lose an extra bet. Say he will also raise the river with a worse hand in 3% of the cases. Thus we might as well discount your value betting equity by 15%. So your value betting equity is 45%, still a lot better than check/call.

The extent by which bet/call is better than check/call using these numbers if quite big, so even if we adjust the number significantly, bet/calling should still be better than check/calling.

Edit: my analysis of opponents calling/raising range at the river is in my post below.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:57 AM
geormiet geormiet is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 19
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

I think check calling is ok, because he will likely value bet a good number hands that you beat(thinking you're gonna call with A high), and because bet-folding sucks.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-19-2005, 01:58 AM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 677
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

[ QUOTE ]
bet/fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

absolutely not. you cannot bet/fold here. period. if you do this you will have shots taken at you all the time, which is exactly what you dont want. if you bet you must call the raise. i think check calling is best because of the previous fact. if you check, he will bet any 8 and the 6. if you bet, he will call all 8s and raise any hand that now beats you and fold all worse hands.

lets do a little math though. lets say that combinatorically and stylistically its equally likely that he has an 8 or a 6. he will call with 8s and raise 6s if you bet. if youc heck he will bet both hands. i assume A8 would 3bet pf. K8 might just call so we'll leave it at that. i also assume K8 would probably raise the turn so the only 8s he has are lower ones. 6s, however, could have a larger range b/c he may not 3bet A6 and wouldn't necessarily raise K6 on the turn.

so in actuality, its slightly more likely imo that he has the 6 than the 8. but lets stick w/ 50/50 still.

situation 1: he has a 6 and you bet/call.

situation 2: he has an 8 and calls your bet.

situation 3: you check he bets the 8 and you win.

situation 4: you check and he bets the 6 and you lose.

so...

E[1+2]= -(2)*.5 + .5*1=-.5

E[3+4]= .5*1 - .5*1=0

given the above assumptions (you dont fold to the raise when you bet) it is never correct to bet. you can alter the probability that villian has an 8 to whatever as long as the probability he has a 6 is 1-Pr(villian has 8) or vice versa.

but if you can fold to the raise (and you are never wrong):

E[1+2]= .5*1-.5*1=0

E[3+4]= .5*1-.5*1=0

so it makes no difference if youc an fold to the raise. the results are always equal for bet/fold vs. check call. but if you can't fold to the raise, check calling is always better.

so even if you COULD fold to the raise, you need to be 100% sure you are beat when you fold every time to the raise and its still exactly even vs. check calling.

so check calling is clearly better given my above assumptions.

-Barron
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-19-2005, 02:03 AM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 677
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet/call in that situation.

Even if he is taggish, I think you do get called by ace high type hands here on that board quite a bit.
He probably does not have a jack. He might well have a 2. If he has a jack he probably will not raise the river as he did not raise the turn.

If you check planning to call, he probably would not bluff. Thus you would give him a very clear value bet.

In rough numbers:
If you check/call you are probably ahead only 20% of the time.
If you bet and he calls, you are probably ahead 60% of the time. Say in 18% of the cases he hold a 6, then he raises and you'd call, so in 18% when you are behind, you lose an extra bet. Say he will also raise the river with a worse hand in 3% of the cases. Thus we might as well discount your value betting equity by 15%. So your value betting equity is 45%, still a lot better than check/call.

The extent by which bet/call is better than check/call using these numbers if quite big, so even if we adjust the number significantly, bet/calling should still be better than check/calling.
Even adjusting these numbers

[/ QUOTE ]

i just did a numerical example that proved check calling is always better than bet/calling. my assumptions were very different though. i think you are giving BK's opponent way too little credit. i think its by far the most likely situation that BK's opponenet has an 8 or a 6 rather than a jack or a 2 or Ahigh. if villian DOES have a 2 though, bet calling is probably better, but if he never bluff raises the river then you will lose every single time you call the raise, not 80% as you suggested above.

so two numerical examples give exact opposite answers. i vote for check calling in this spot though b/c i give villian more credit.

Barron
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-19-2005, 02:10 AM
poker1O1 poker1O1 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 138
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

[ QUOTE ]


situation 1: he has a 6 and you bet/call.

situation 2: he has an 8 and calls your bet.

situation 3: you check he bets the 8 and you win.

situation 4: you check and he bets the 6 and you lose.

so...

E[1+2]= -(2)*.5 + .5*1=-.5

E[3+4]= .5*1 - .5*1=0


[/ QUOTE ]
nice post first of all, is E[1 + 2] the average equity of decisions 1 and 2?
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-19-2005, 02:16 AM
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

Thanks for the input.

I think first of all, bet folding on this board is probably not right. Even "straightforward" oppoents here - if they raise - will probably raise with a worse hand often enough that we have to call. If that was not the case, bet/folding would be the best option here.

In my opinion, this rainbow ragged board is perfect ace high calldown territory. Even the tightest high stakes players will feel very very tempted to call down here. The way he played his hand is consistent with ace high. The same of course holds for any two.

The way he played his hand is less consistent with a J.

Finally, the 6 coming at the river makes it 33% less likely that he holds a 6 than a 2. So given that he does not fold the river we could put him on something like 15% A high, 15% J, 25% 2, 17,5% 6, 17,5% 8
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-19-2005, 02:21 AM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 677
Default Re: 100/200 blind war

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


situation 1: he has a 6 and you bet/call.

situation 2: he has an 8 and calls your bet.

situation 3: you check he bets the 8 and you win.

situation 4: you check and he bets the 6 and you lose.

so...

E[1+2]= -(2)*.5 + .5*1=-.5

E[3+4]= .5*1 - .5*1=0


[/ QUOTE ]
nice post first of all, is E[1 + 2] the average equity of decisions 1 and 2?

[/ QUOTE ]

each set of possibilities is composed of an 8 and a 6. each 1 is 50% so im combining them for simplicity

Barron
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:48 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions Inc.