Peeling on a thin red line with KK?

#1 11-02-2005, 04:42 AM

Hi!

I'm not sure about this hand. The pot is rather large so a call might be good getting 11.5:1 having a gutshot and a backdoorflushdraw. The remaining Ks are not good, since any Q has a straight. The Qs on the other hand put 4 parts to a straight on the board as well, damaging my implied odds. The number of opponents tells me: your KK are dead. The preflop-cold-caller might be going for a check-raise. I have no reliable reads on any of them. The athmosphere is rather loose though. So is this a fold? What role does the # of opponents play here. Please elaborate, I'm still quite a noob, lost in these situations, prone to spewing [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Party Poker 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 folds, Hero raises, 1 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, UTG calls, Hero ???

Regards,

G.

irishpint · #2 11-02-2005, 05:02 AM

you can call i think since you have gutshot+BDFD and it's possible that a K is good (or that you're ahead somehow).

crovax4444 · #3 11-02-2005, 05:19 AM

I agree on calling. I'm counting 4 Queens (2.5 outs), + BDFD (1.5 outs) = 4 outs, which means u need 5.07 to peel the turn. Your getting 6.75:1 odds, so I'd call and reevaluate on the turn

Anyone else have thoughts on leading the flop? With early agression, a cordinated board (about 40% of it helping you) and poor position, is it worth raising to see where you stand?

JimNashe · #4 11-02-2005, 05:24 AM

I like calling here, between the 3 of them someone has an ace and this being 1/2 nobody is going to fold a pair of aces.

#5 11-02-2005, 05:35 AM

*Grunch*

I think a call is good here, you still have plenty of outs here to improve: 2 Kings, 4 Queens and 1.5 outs for the BDFD. The pot is big enough and I think you have the implied odds to call.

I wouldn't worry about the pre-flop cold caller check-raising...w/o any reads it is hard to fear this outright. If you do you find yourself in the middle of a raising war between the bettor and the pre-flop cold caller, then proceed more cautiously.

Call the bet and see what the turn has in store.

Plus you may even have the best hand. As such, since you do have a strongish draw - I'd like to see if any of the vets here would recommend a raise.

#6 11-02-2005, 05:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree on calling. I'm counting 4 Queens (2.5 outs), + BDFD (1.5 outs) = 4 outs, which means u need 5.07 to peel the turn. Your getting 6.75:1 odds, so I'd call and reevaluate on the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not great at discounting outs yet so hence my questions: Why discount the 4 Queens to 2.5 outs? Is it because the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] could give someone the nut flush draw (and us the 2nd nut draw)? Wouldn't that still only make it 3.5 outs?

crovax4444 · #7 11-02-2005, 05:50 AM

I'm lowering them because anyone else with a K would also have a straight, splitting the pot. Having 2nd nut is sill good in this situation.

I didn't count the Kings, as it was mentioned in the OP that doing that would give anyone with Q's a straight and you a set.

I'm just thinking outloud (mostly for my own benefit), but if the K hit the turn, you would have 7 clean outs (K, 3 J's and 3 10's) and 3-5 dirty outs (A's and Q's) to redraw for a boat. Therefore, if the K hit the turn and it was bet to you, I'd still call it if not raise (correct me if I'm wrong)

Crovax

#8 11-02-2005, 05:55 AM

Gotcha...this is a part of my game I must work on more. Thanks!

Pyromaniac · #9 11-02-2005, 11:28 AM

*grunching*

UTG limper and 2 coldcallers after you raise...I'm thinking that you're behind to an ace in that bunch, somewhere among those six cards. (thus the role of # of opponents...the more there are, the more likely--just sheer numbers--that one has an ace. plus people like to play aces...)

I don't like looking/hoping toward the runner-runner flush, because if you *are* behind to an ace, it could well be the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ... and/or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] rag[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ...so a heart on the turn could leave you chasing something that you're already dead to.

I don't think I'd raise...it's not going to push anyone out. But then I wouldn't want to fold, either. I guess I'd call and see if MP3 reraises and see what the turn brings. (Although, as you say, there's not much other than a Q that's going to make things any easier on the turn.)

TomBrooks · #10 11-02-2005, 11:43 AM

Good call for one bet I think, especially with the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] King. Just be careful for the situations you have already indicated. This board may have hit everyone hard.