2/4 KQ River question

#1 10-27-2005, 06:59 PM

Villain in this hand is 15.5/7.5/3.9 over 120 hands. I called the flop with the intention of checkraising most turns. My main question is whether or not I should have bet the river...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, Villain 3-bets in CO, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain bets, Hero raises, Villain calls.

River: (8.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain checks.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

Yako · #2 10-27-2005, 07:04 PM

Raise the flop! It's HU, and one raise will not cause villain to suspect a raise. If he 3bets you, then I'd c/r the turn. And bet the turn, you are VERY likely to have the best hand. I'd call a raise too. Villain doesn't have AK often enough here for me to bet/fold the river.

cold_cash · #3 10-27-2005, 07:05 PM

I would bet the flop and hope he has something good so I could 3-bet.

I would also have bet the turn.

I would also bet the river.

Nick C · #4 10-27-2005, 07:07 PM

It's a horrible river card.

I don't want to bet-fold and toss away a chop (versus KK), and you're going to lose too often (especially once you get raised) for me to want to put two bets in on the river.

I think check-calling is the way to go. I mean, you still beat AA (and the less likely 88), but that's about it. (Edit: Well, okay, there is AQ also. I forget about that one sometimes, since I so rarely 3-bet with it myself.)

pokernicus · #5 10-27-2005, 07:49 PM

Very interesting hand. Thanks for posting it. I'm having trouble putting Villain on a hand that explains his actions.

Not counting the fact that he checked behind on the river (since I'm not supposed to know that he did that when ascertaining your river check...) the only hands I can put him on that you should be concerned with are AK, AA, and maybe a small boat (I include AA since it seems like one of the few hands he might have that are worse than yours and where he's willing to call a river bet).

If he fires twice and calls a check-raise, he's got to have at least something. AK and AA fit well with his actions (since I think he would have three-bet with a boat).

I lean towards betting the river because his play smells more like AA. And he probably slowed down because of the scary board on the turn.

Based on the info you have, a check also seems reasonable. Statiscally speaking, AK is a more likely hand to be dealt than AA (even given the Q in your hand), and he might have made a continuation bet on the flop and a semi-bluff on the turn, and made some type of pot-odds rationalization for calling your check-raise. However, with your turn check raise, I would think he is more likely to be laying down AK (especially if he reads you for a set, boat, or str8). The same logic applies to calling a CR with AA, but you also have to account for the fact that people don't like to lay down AA, and in this case AA is a more reasonable hand to hold on to since you may just have two pair.

Curious to see how this panned out.

BTW - you might want to give the details of the hand up until the decision point so we're not biased in our analysis; e.g., if you're considering whether to check or bet on the river, we may not want to know that you actually checked (and that the Villain checked behind)... that gives us additional information (that you didn't have access to when making the decision in the first place).

The responses you receive are less likely to be biased.

Borodog · #6 10-27-2005, 08:03 PM

Villain has either AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ like 100% of the time here. JJ, TT, or god forbid 99 would have been 3 bet on the turn. AQ may be outside of his 3 betting range. His PFR is very tight (3.7), so AQ may be right out the window. Hard to say.

There are 6 ways to hold aces, 3 ways to hold Kings, one way to hold Queens, 12 ways to hold AK. That's 13 ways that beat you, 3 ways to chop, and only 6 ways you beat. This is any easy check. The pot is large enough that you have to call a river bet though.

pokernicus · #7 10-27-2005, 08:14 PM

Just FYI - you can also include QQ and KK in his range of hands. In an effort to simplify matters, I didn't include these as hands you should be overly concerned with since:

1) QQ is really unlikely given that you have a Q and there's one on the board
2) KK leads to a chop so check/call or bet on the river doesn't matter.

#8 10-27-2005, 08:14 PM

your beat in to many ways here check-call is your best move

Sneakychicken

#9 10-27-2005, 08:24 PM

Thanks all for the replys. After the hand I felt like I should have bet the river, but now I'm convinced the check was probably best.

The villain had AQs and MYIG

ErrantNight · #10 10-27-2005, 09:43 PM

way to kill your action with that turn c/r.