Rolled kings behind split Aces (stud/8)

[Alchemist]

Villain was playing quite a few marginal hands, but I was very confident his completion meant split Aces and not a good 3 card low.
When do you fire back at him?

And yes I know I missed a bet on 6th (and probably 5th as well).

7 Card Stud High-Low ($1/$2), Ante $0.10, Bring-In $0.50 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

4th Street - (4.20 SB)

Seat 6: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises

5th Street - (4.10 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.10 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___checks
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks

River - (6.10 BB)

Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___checks___calls
Hero: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: 8.10 BB

[Bremen]

blah, I'm not awake

[Wolffink]

I think you answer your own questions about missing the bet on 5th street especially if you put him on split pair of Aces.

You could have re-raised 3rd and 5th--after that, even if Villain has split pair you're probably splitting the pot.

Re-raising third probably won't scare him off--he'll still lead into you assuming you have pair of Kings and are assuming he has a 3 card low and trying to move him off his hand if he bricks. Would re-raising third scare you off if you had his hand?

I think Zee says not to be too aggressive with high hands early, but trips are different--most likely you're in until the river anyway. So I think a case can be made for re-raising third and playing aggressively until you're convinced Villain has made his low. Re-raise 3rd and try to get the other low out.

Betting fifth into Villain's board is okay--it's like you say he's got to have split pair of Aces or paired for the bet to have any +EV, eh? Well, maybe. If Villain bricks sixth, you'd bet again--otherwise check it down.

And why bet the river after checking 5th & 6th? Villain has his low and he might have made a straight. I check/call here and on sixth street too. I'm probably splitting hairs here on everything except the River bet--which I really don't like.

But that's just me...

[Bay]

play back on 3rd than raise 5th
he might even re raies you if he made aces up by 5th

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you answer your own questions about missing the bet on 5th street especially if you put him on split pair of Aces.

You could have re-raised 3rd and 5th--after that, even if Villain has split pair you're probably splitting the pot.

Re-raising third probably won't scare him off--he'll still lead into you assuming you have pair of Kings and are assuming he has a 3 card low and trying to move him off his hand if he bricks. Would re-raising third scare you off if you had his hand?


[/ QUOTE ]
It would certainly give me pause. Let's assume my image is that of an unimaginative player and I complete with (AX)A. If a K (tight player) behind me reraises, and also I notice an Ace just folded, I put him on KKK. I'd call and see what 4th street brings.
IMO reraising an A with just (Kx)K is suicide. Call me weak-tight but I think I fold the Kings every time.

NOw let's say I only have two cards to a low at that point, like (A4)AJ. If I lead out on 4th and (xx)K3 raises me again, I'm really not liking my hand very much anymore.
Or what if you even have a three-low like (A8)A5 and (xx)K3 raises your 4th street bet?

two dimes
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 ah 5h ac 8d - ks kd kh 3c / 9d 3s 9c as 6d
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac 8d Ah 5h 43073 43073 456927 0 173140 0 0 0.250
Ks 3c Kd Kh 293077 456927 43073 0 0 0 0 0.750

[ QUOTE ]

I think Zee says not to be too aggressive with high hands early, but trips are different--most likely you're in until the river anyway. So I think a case can be made for re-raising third and playing aggressively until you're convinced Villain has made his low. Re-raise 3rd and try to get the other low out.

Betting fifth into Villain's board is okay--it's like you say he's got to have split pair of Aces or paired for the bet to have any +EV, eh? Well, maybe. If Villain bricks sixth, you'd bet again--otherwise check it down.

[/ QUOTE ]
Replaying the hand, I now think raising 5th is a better play. If he has one Ace in the hole, he has at best: a pair of Aces and a four-low or Aces up. Either way, I'm ahead for high (worst case scenario for me is if he has A3 or A4 giving him a wheel draw, but it helps that 2 threes and a four are dead at this point).

Bottom line is that he hasn't made low yet.

He could also very plausibly have A9-AK which puts me even further ahead. AND there's a dead Ace.

[ QUOTE ]

And why bet the river after checking 5th & 6th? Villain has his low and he might have made a straight. I check/call here and on sixth street too. I'm probably splitting hairs here on everything except the River bet--which I really don't like.

But that's just me...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think 6th street is interesting. His check said a lot. Would you check 6th if you had a made low even if you had A8 in the hole? He can't realistically think I've suddenly got a low hand (let alone a better one). If I were him and I'm holding (A8)A256, I'm likely betting out anyway.

The check tells me he hasn't made low yet and he knows I'm not going anywhere.

I think checking the river is missing a value bet. Even if I don't fill up, I'm unlikely beaten for high. If he makes low, we split anyway. If he has or makes Aces up he's calling. He might even call with a naked pair of Aces.

[Hamlet]

I think that if you re-raise the Ace on third, you've pretty much narrowed your hand to KKK or AAK.

Although on the other hand, I'm not likely to call with split K's either. I suppose you might as well raise.

[Alchemist]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Zee says not to be too aggressive with high hands early, but trips are different--most likely you're in until the river anyway. So I think a case can be made for re-raising third and playing aggressively until you're convinced Villain has made his low. Re-raise 3rd and try to get the other low out.


[/ QUOTE ]

This was my dilemma. How to get max value out of it. Maybe I give my opponents too much credit, but the way I foresee it, if I reraise 3rd I'm immediately pegged for KKK (remember, there's a dead Ace and I was also seeing 4th street ~25% of the time). This could give Aces an easier laydown especially if bricking on 4th. It seems like I'm losing money in this scenario (opponent folding early) but is that a bad thing? I think this is one of the biggest leaks in my game right now.

My hope was that villain would catch middle-high cards on 4th and 5th where I would then raise. Let him think I made Kings up so if he made Aces up it could build a huge pot. As it turned out, he kept catching low cards which is why I raised 3rd.

You're right in saying there's merit in reraising 3rd in order to drive out the other low.