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#1
07-31-2005, 01:00 PM
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Stud/8, late SnG hand
I'd never played Seat 7 before, but respect what I've seen of his play in this tournament.
Tournament - 7 Card Stud High-Low - Level XI (1,000/2,000), Ante 200, Bring-In 300 (hand converter) Hero: 6,131 Seat 4: 1,360 Seat 7: 4,509 3rd Street - (0.60 SB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls 4th Street - (2.60 SB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls 5th Street - (2.30 BB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks 6th Street - (2.30 BB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___???? Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets Current pot: (6600) Current stack sizes on my action: Hero: 3931 Seat 4: 1160 Seat 7: 309 
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#2
07-31-2005, 02:47 PM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
Raise him all-in, he probably wont fold but stranger things have happened.
If all he has is the low then half the deck (or Ace high) could give you a save. If he’s paired up and betting into your weakness, you still have a chance to scoop it.
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#3
07-31-2005, 04:42 PM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
Unless opponent is asleep at the switch, he isn't going to fold to the raise. He has a little over T300 left, and there is T6600 in the pot.
I think third through fifth are pretty standard. If this guy is playing well and calls after catching an off-suit Ten, he probably started off strong. A very likely hand is two small clubs in the hole. In that case, he's got a very strong hand on fifth, and you have garbage. I would check with the intention of folding. I think that if you are going to continue on sixth, you should bet rather than check. If the Deuce paired the other guy, he should fold, and he can't fold if you don't bet. Since he checked behind on fifth street, he probably doesn't have much of a high draw. You've got seven outs to a straight, and pairing one of your high cards just might be good, too. So you have outs if you're called, and he can't do any further damage. His check on fifth looks really weak, so I think I'd try a semi-bluff bet here. You really, really want him to fold, but you have outs if you're called.
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#4
08-01-2005, 09:07 AM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
[ QUOTE ]
His check on fifth looks really weak [/ QUOTE ] He doesn't have enough chips to play 'normally'. I think he is going low, but isn't there yet. He has 1BB left. When he makes his low on the next street he bets & is free wheeling for high.
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#5
08-01-2005, 07:19 PM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
As chip leader, I was stealing blinds fairly frequently, particularly from Seat 4. Seat 7 was usually more resistant when I raised his bring-in.
Anyway I thought a great deal about calling or folding to his bet on 6th street. If he made his low on 6th, I'm still fairly ok for high since he won't have a pair yet and my Ace is currently better than his Ace, if he has one. It helped that he had very few chips left to call if he bet out on the river and my hand didn't improve. Here's how it played out: Tournament - 7 Card Stud High-Low - Level XI (1,000/2,000), Ante 200, Bring-In 300 (hand converter) Hero: 6,131 Seat 4: 1,360 Seat 7: 4,509 3rd Street - (0.60 SB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises Seat 4: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls 4th Street - (2.60 SB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls 5th Street - (2.30 BB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___checks 6th Street - (2.30 BB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets River - (4.30 BB) Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks Seat 7: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___checks Total pot: (4.30 BB) Results: Total pot 8600 Hero: [Ad Jh Ks 7d 9c Td 3h] (HI: high card Ace) Seat 7: [As 6d 3d Tc 2c 7h 8c] (HI: high card Ace - lower kicker; LO: 7,6,3,2,A) Why he checked the river, I don't know... On 6th street my chances for winning the HIGH side were surprisingly good: Hero: 63.42% Seat 7: 36.58% Overall my equity on 6th is 40.49%. Now, help me calculate this correctly. Let's assume he bets the river. At 6th street, I'll be risking 2309 to win half the final pot: 8909/2=4454.5. 4454.5/2309=1.9 so I need about 2:1 implied pot odds to call. If my equity is 0.4 or 3:2 then a call is correct (right?). This of course doesn't take into account the tournament payouts. Comments?
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#6
08-02-2005, 10:04 AM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
On 6th, it looks like you are cutting it a little too close. When he bets into you, there are 3.3BB in the pot. It seems clear he has made a low, so you are playing for 1.6BB. You must risk 1 to win 1.6BB, and your hand is very weak. I would fold.
concerning your calculations wouldn't the pot have 8600 + 309 +309 (9218) in it? (but, that wouldn't change your 2:1 implied odds figure.) This seems like a bad bet. The pot pays you 2:1 and each bet you make returns .4 * 2BB or .8BB. Don't you lose .2BB each time you play?
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#7
08-02-2005, 01:08 PM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
[ QUOTE ]
On 6th, it looks like you are cutting it a little too close. When he bets into you, there are 3.3BB in the pot. It seems clear he has made a low, so you are playing for 1.6BB. You must risk 1 to win 1.6BB, and your hand is very weak. I would fold. concerning your calculations wouldn't the pot have 8600 + 309 +309 (9218) in it? (but, that wouldn't change your 2:1 implied odds figure.) This seems like a bad bet. The pot pays you 2:1 and each bet you make returns .4 * 2BB or .8BB. Don't you lose .2BB each time you play? [/ QUOTE ] I suck at this stuff, but here goes: Let's assume an all-in raise on 6th. So, there is 9218 in the pot. Hero risked ~ 1BB and his equity is ~ 40% (3687) or 1.8 BB. Isn't he making .8 BB each time? Andy, can you call your sister? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#8
08-02-2005, 04:08 PM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume an all-in raise on 6th. So, there is 9218 in the pot. Hero risked ~ 1BB and his equity is ~ 40% (3687) or 1.8 BB. Isn't he making .8 BB each time? [/ QUOTE ] This seems right, except that he has a 40% chance to win the high half of the pot. So he is risking ~1bb to make ~.9BB (but I am easily confused)
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#9
08-02-2005, 04:22 PM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Let's assume an all-in raise on 6th. So, there is 9218 in the pot. Hero risked ~ 1BB and his equity is ~ 40% (3687) or 1.8 BB. Isn't he making .8 BB each time? [/ QUOTE ] This seems right, except that he has a 40% chance to win the high half of the pot. So he is risking ~1bb to make ~.9BB (but I am easily confused) [/ QUOTE ] Maybe this is where I’m confused. I put the exact cards (at 6th street) into TwoDimes and Hero’s EV is .405. I believe that is for the entire pot., not just the high side. When I give Hero a straight which his opponent can’t outdraw his EV is .500. I think TwoDimes gives him an 81% chance of winning the high.
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#10
08-02-2005, 05:22 PM
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Re: Stud/8, late SnG hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This seems right, except that he has a 40% chance to win the high half of the pot. So he is risking ~1bb to make ~.9BB (but I am easily confused) [/ QUOTE ] Maybe this is where I’m confused. I put the exact cards (at 6th street) into TwoDimes and Hero’s EV is .405. I believe that is for the entire pot., not just the high side. I think TwoDimes gives him an 81% chance of winning the high. [/ QUOTE ] This is correct.
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