$109 Party Hand - Trip Jacks vs. another big stack on river

[Lloyd]

Party $109

The villain had been pretty aggressive. He hadn't shown down anything horrible but was definitely playing the big stack. I had just trippled up when my KK beat his QQ and another's AK.

Blinds 75/150

Villain: t9295
Hero: t6000

All fold to villain in CO-1 who limps for t150. Folded to me in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I complete and BB checks.

Pot: t450
Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet t300. BB folds. Villain calls t300.

Pot: t1050
Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet t600. Villain calls t600.

Pot: t2250
River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Range of hands for villain and what's your plan?

If he's a decent player. The only dangerous hand I could put him on would be slow-played trips. My reasoning is as follows:
1. The low str8: surely he wouldn't have called it down?
2. The flush: you've got the Ace, so I would expect him to at least re-raise the turn to find out where he stands.

The problem is that it's going to be hard for him to out you on a hand because there is no pre-flop raise so he might be nervous of his low flush, nervous of his J10 nervous of his poket sixes and is calling you down with marginal hand. The nightmare is trips though, especially if he's put you on the flush. No, in fact, the nightmare is J9 where he's put you on the flush and is coming stright OTT on the river.

You have a tricky decision. I can't see him calling a large bet unless he has you beat with the full house or flush. I would either check or make a small bet that you can afford to have re-raised and try to see what further information you can get. There doesn't seem too much value to raising unless you're sure he's got KJ, QJ etc. Checking may induce a bluff that you can't call but he can't be finding it easy to put you on a hand either and with a pair on the board and three to a flush (and no ace), I would be wary of making a bluff in his position.

What happened? It's a trouble hand - did you escape?

I, possibly wrongly, would have pushed out a larger bet on the turn with tptk and the nut flush draw.

absolutely do not check this hand on the river, you are only asking villain to push, then you have no clue if he has the goods or not. I put in a bet of say 900 on the river. Villain with lesser hand may pay this off and a better hand may be worried about this being a value bet for a decent full house or nut flush (especially since he can't have the A of clubs).

[adanthar]

For starters, here's what he probably doesn't have: a jack. If he called both the flop and the turn with it and managed not to raise on a three flush board, he's...not good. (It's possible he's got something like K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J, but unlikely.)

He might have a set or a flush. He might also have total trash (medium pair, two cards that he is planning to bluff with). Don't even think about a blocking bet; bet/raise/call is a good way to lose your stack - all of the bluffs are going to abandon ship on this card because you're not folding, and all of the big hands will raise big because you're not folding.

It's a lose/lose situation...unless you check. Which I do 100% of the time on this board, and then I call a big bet and beat his 75 offsuit that he would never have bluff raised with now.

PS: If he has a midpair, checking is also faaaar better. Do you see why?

[flawless_victory]

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PS: If he has a midpair, checking is also faaaar better. Do you see why?

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no, i dont. how about you help me out and explain.

[mlagoo]

i'm almost always bet/calling here, and getting pissed off that i don't have position.

[adanthar]

You have, say, 77. 'Villain' bets into you on a J329 board with 2/3 clubs, then checks a second jack. The best play with 77 is probably to check behind; what people *actually* do is to bet it looking to get a better hand to fold or A3 to call.

Conversely, when villain bets the jack, 77 isn't calling a large bet and might not call a small one. But he might very well bet the pot if checked to.

When you check, you lose some value vs. normal jacks (but not a lot - they will value bet themselves most of the time, so you average a few hundred chips), 'win' lots vs. flushes/boats and make a killing off the Harrington 10% (which is a bigger factor here than you would think). You lose a bunch off AA-QQ and exactly K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J. I make this tradeoff all the time and will post a few hands when I get home tomorrow if this thread is still around.

[schwza]

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PS: If he has a midpair, checking is also faaaar better. Do you see why?

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this makes no sense.

[woodguy]

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It's a lose/lose situation...unless you check. Which I do 100% of the time on this board, and then I call a big bet and beat his 75 offsuit that he would never have bluff raised with now.

PS: If he has a midpair, checking is also faaaar better. Do you see why?

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are totally discounting the number of times a mid pair or badly played overpair calls?

I like your line in that you don't go broke to a bigger hand, and get value from bluffs, but he can hold some hands that call the river.

Another J is unlikely, but also cannot be discounted completely.

Regards,
Woodguy

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It's a lose/lose situation...unless you check. Which I do 100% of the time on this board, and then I call a big bet and beat his 75 offsuit that he would never have bluff raised with now.



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you say you call a big bet. it's river time, he has position, he has the nuts or near nuts, isn't he going to bet big? so you go broke calling him. What's wrong with a value bet? Villain can have near nuts and respect the fact that you may actually have the nuts and you get through rather cheaply. In addition, it is a value bet because if villain has a pocket pair, you are getting villain to put more chips into a pot with a losing hand.