Hmmmm $100 PS NL

[kurto]

Main Villain ($100) - Never raises PF. I'd seen him limp with Kings. So-so postflop (though mostly passive, mostly doesn't call with crap.)

Secondary villain ($20)- Weak small stack player. Raises with any 2 broadway, any Ace in position.

Me - ($160)

Main Villain limps. Folds to Secondary Villain UTG who raises to $4. I have pocket jacks. I raise to $20.

Main villain calls. Secondary villain folds.

I know main villain isn't calling a $20 raise with crap. He likely has me beat preflop.

FLOP ($44) J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet $40. Villain calls. (definite looks like an overpair - I am 95% certain he has Aces or Kings, and I'm definitely leaning towards Aces because I've never raised this strongly before and I'm pretty sure if he didn't have aces, he would put me on aces)

TURN ($124) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Now what? Villain has about $40 left. I know if I check he's betting it. Does anyone check fold here?

[TheWorstPlayer]

No.

[kurto]

Sigh. This is one of those cases where I lost it all. And it annoys me because I knew on the turn I was toast.

This is the kind of hand where if someone else played it, I would have told them the other guy has aces. He called a 20xbb raise (which was far from the norm on the table)... I knew he wasn't an idiot (passive, yes, but not wreckless)

On the flop, I remember a sigh of relief because I told myself I just cracked his aces. I knew he was not calling with a flush draw. You know what I mean, I KNEW what he had.

When that ace came on the turn, It was like time stopped. I knew he hit his 2 outer and didn't know what to do. I had the typical 2+2 response going through my head... you don't fold trips, put him on a range of hands, etc. And I also know that I often argue that a read can be much more valuable then the math.

So I pushed... he called. And he had the aces.

And don't get me wrong.. this isn't a bad beat post (because I knew I was toast on the turn).

I was just curious if anyone, seeing the preflop action, putting the opponent on a hand.. would also have made the exact same read and perhaps saved $40?

This was one of those hands where I was fuming as I went to bed. I felt a little unlucky but I was mostly angry because I knew on the turn I was beat and bet anyways.

[PinkSteel]

Even with the same reads, I still call (bet out, in fact) and lose it on the river. As Harrington would say, "No one is that savvy."

In a behavioral decision-making experiment, people who are given tests about random, hard-to-know numbers (e.g., How many employees did AT&T have when it was broken up in 1984?) and are asked to define a range, from lowest to highest, such that they are 90% sure that the answer lies in that range, will be correct 50% of the time. Fifty percent. Not ninety, as you might expect or hope for given the question, but fifty, as in what on earth are these test-takers thinking.

As human beings, we are naturally over-confident about our abilities of prediction. It's built in. Yes, you can sharpen your reading skills, but Harrington is right: no one is that savvy.

No way I fold.

[jhall23]

Meh, despiste the correct read of a higher PP I think you are letting results get in the way since you saw that he had AA. Do you really think he would have played the KK any differently. Since he only has $40 left you are risking 40 for 164. Are you really that sure he can only have AA here. He'd probably call a bet again with KhKx so you can't fault yourself for making the move.

Also did you hold the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ? If so then even if he flips up the Aces (well say this way live) you couldn't fold.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1056743
pokenum -h jh js - ad as -- jc 3h 5h ah
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing Jc Ah 5h 3h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Js Jh 10 22.73 34 77.27 0 0.00 0.227
As Ad 34 77.27 10 22.73 0 0.00 0.773

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think he would have played the KK any differently.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do think there's a much greater likelihood that he could have laid down Kings. I'm know I'm making some assumptions here but here's my thoughts:

Someone raises 4xbb and they get reraised to 20xbb by a non-LAG/Manaic. When I see this happen, Easily 90% of the time the huge reraise is Aces. (Again... if the reraiser is a maniac or uberlag, or a desperate shortstack or someone on tilt, then this doesn't apply. But your average player... this is aces.)

So, I deduced that he's likely to put me on a hand like Aces or Kings; he called 20% of his stack preflop without a second thought considering a raise and a reraise- I was that pretty darn certain.

Another line- What I kept running through my head last night was; would a better line have been to checkraise on the flop? (considering the hearts... it crossed my mind.) Though I'm not sure it would have made a difference to most players. They weren't going to fold Aces.

I don't know... I know the whole math side and about putting your opponent on a range of hands. But there are times you just know. I don't beat myself up over bad beats... I beat myself up when I do something dumb. And I know the pot odds will say I have to call... but how much value do you put on your read and your instincts? In this case, I felt like I could see his cards.

Sidenote- I honestly don't recall if I had the Jack of hearts. I thought about it after the fact and that detail just disappeared from my head afterwards.

[TheWorstPlayer]

If you really see people making laydowns on an all-unders board with KK, you need to re-raise every time that person raises.

[Tim H]

i smooth call the 20x pf raise with KK and AA.
You are still ahead of the game if you figure half the time he has KK here and half the time he has AA here

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone raises 4xbb and they get reraised to 20xbb by a non-LAG/Manaic. When I see this happen, Easily 90% of the time the huge reraise is Aces. (Again... if the reraiser is a maniac or uberlag, or a desperate shortstack or someone on tilt, then this doesn't apply. But your average player... this is aces.)

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. More than 50% of the time, the reraise is QQ, KK, or AK. People can reraise with more hands when the stacks are small or the initial raise was in late position or the initial raiser seems loose.

It's interesting to see the contrast between your estimate of the chance the second raise is aces versus those who want the FAQ to say never fold KK preflop, even after a third raise all-in.