Passing up 7:1 pot odds with KQo

[45suited]

My thoughts here: With the raise and two callers, it's too likely that my hand is dominated. I'd hate to hit my hand and not be able to play it strongly. AND my stack is not deep enough to somehow play the hand 'for information'. But it IS deep enough to simply fold, get out of the way, and proceed with proper bubble play when the time comes. Results posted later. Thoughts?

PartyPoker, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com


UTG (t2250)
UTG+1 (t770)
MP1 (t690)
CO (t985)
Button (t865)
SB (t1365)
Hero (t1075)


Preflop: Hero is in BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">UTG raises t100</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, MP1 calls t100, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Button calls t100, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero folds</font>

[chisness]

You'd think the callers would be pushing if they had you dominated, but of course this might not be true. This is definitely a fine, safe way to play here since you don't need chips badly anyway. I'd say I don't mind either way.

[tom441lbk]

I call this all day long. Big stack is in there, good place to look for a double up.

When I get in here at this point though, I'm looking to hit my hand pretty hard, and not just run with TPGK.

I am also more likely to get in there if the small stacks are pushing if I have TPGK, whereas I'm more caution with the bigger sized stacks.

I just don't see passing up on this, even if I know I am dominated, you are last to act preflop 50 to call in a 375 pot, with good implied odds.


Calling all day long,

lbk


edit: also it is important whether this is the first hand of 25-50, or the last? imho

[Burno]

Hey, you said the same thing I did using 1/4 the words, which is probably why you were able to post a full minute faster than me.

It makes no difference to me if this is the first or last hand of 25/50, I'm calling regardless. One of those shortstacks desperately wants to get his money in the middle with QTs on a Q48 flop. And UTG has given us two strong clues that he is a muppet as well.

[tom441lbk]

Yeah, it makes a little difference, probably more in the transition between 50-100 to 75-150.

And I used more than 1/4 the words, I might have just started sooner.

What are the 2 clues that UTG is a muppet?
I'd need a read to say that him raising min UTG is muppet, this could mean a strong hand that wants action or a reraise. I need a read before I'm commiting too many chips with him contesting the pot.


lbk

[tom441lbk]

45suited,

I agree more in that I like a hand like 45s-T8s.

I also agree that KQ is one of the worst hands to have here, but I also see donkey raises and calls here. If UTG would have raise to 175 or so and two callers I would be more inclined to give it up here, and I think your argument works more for this sized raise.

I like getting into pots, in safe spots if I have a comfortable chip stack, in 25-50 and 50-100 levels to look for more chips. However your chipstack is kinda at that awkward level, but I think I find the room to spare 50 chips right here, because I don't think it hurts us *that* bad.

I also agree that we have to watch out for UTG, but I still don't mind getting my chips in on a K or Q high flop in a minraised pot, but maybe I'm just a donkey.

lbk

[Burno]

[ QUOTE ]

What are the 2 clues that UTG is a muppet?


[/ QUOTE ]

Clue 1. He has 2250 chips on level 3. As counterintuitive as it may seem, I believe that a bad player is much more likely to have a bunch of chips at level 3 vs. a good player.

Clue 2. He has minraised UTG. I know lots of good SNG players. I can think of one or two that minraise at the 25/50 level, and they generally do it in LP.


Now, one look at his PT numbers oughta solidify or nullify this read.

[45suited]

I don't really see that it matters if he's a muppet. I mean, say for the sake of argument that he's a muppet. Is he more or less likely to be mini-raising UTG with a hand that dominates you?

I don't think anyone really knows the answer to that question.

Plus, don't forget that all the other factors are still in play: Likelihood of domination, playing OOP, a stack not big enough to play the hand for information, having to play TP weakly, and a stack that is just fine if I fold and move on.

And if he IS a muppet, there will come a time later, in a spot not nearly so tricky, where I will exploit his 'muppetness'.

Interesting discussion though. Thanks for giving me your feedback.

[z32fanatic]

I would definitely call with KQ and 1000 chips here. Don't fear the min raise in level 3.

[Burno]

I call here everytime, and frankly I'm surprised you'd consider folding here in a 22 or 33. I'd love to be wrong here and learn something new/plug a leak, but I call with worse hands than KQ here.

There are at least 5 terrible players at your table who are dying to give you their chips, and you're being offered a great price with good implied odds and a decent hand.

Now, I'm not itching to get my stack in everytime if I only flop one K or Q. I'm shooting for two pair or better, but I think you can still make some money with just TP2K here. If I flop top pair, I'll probably check the flop and bet the turn if checked around. I'm folding with one pair if UTG fires a legitimate bet on the flop. If MP or the button bets after UTG and I check, I probably will c/r all in if their PT numbers tell me they suck, but that depends on the flop texture and a few other things as well.