QJs - a high variance play. Comments please.

#1 12-02-2005, 12:41 PM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO raises, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO raises, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Button folds.

River: (15.75 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 17.75 BB

Buckmulligan · #2 12-02-2005, 12:45 PM

You can bet or check this, IMO. Whle you lose some value when you are checkraised on the turn you gain a good portion back when you checkraise a made flush or an 8 on the river (I'm not sure I checkraise a K).

krimson · #3 12-02-2005, 12:48 PM

Not sure about the turn bet. We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point, so I don't this this bet has value anymore, unless all 3 players call. I'd imagine one player will fold here often, so I would just c/c and hope it gets checked through by CO in fear of being c/r'd again.

callmedonnie · #4 12-02-2005, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Not sure about the turn bet. We only make our hand ~27% of the time on the river at this point, so I don't this this bet has value anymore. I would just c/c and hope it gets checked through by CO in fear of being c/r'd again.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the OESD that we just picked up? Shouldn't we have about 15 outs then, making us roughly 33%?

I still check in these spots, which is something that concerns me onbly becauese of how transparent my hand is. Against a good player he'll see us pushing on flop and when we slow down on the turn our hand will be obvious once we check. However, getting all that equity is profitable and if we check odds dictate our call. We might not get paid off on the river, but if we build a big enough pot, a good player would have to call w/ any kind of hand, no?

krimson · #5 12-02-2005, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What about the OESD that we just picked up? Shouldn't we have about 15 outs then, making us roughly 33%?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I was thinking OESD/FD but 13 outs popped into my head for some reason, rather than 15. Thanks, post fixed.

#6 12-02-2005, 01:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you calculate this? Is this number of outs vs. what we have left in the deck?

krimson · #7 12-02-2005, 01:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We only make our hand ~30-33% of the time on the river at this point

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you calculate this? Is this number of outs vs. what we have left in the deck?

[/ QUOTE ]
46 cards left, so our odds are 15

46-15) = 15:31, which is rougly 1:2 or 33%.

A quicker method for a rough calculation is to take the number of outs and multiply by 4 on the flop or 2 on the turn. So 15x2 = 30%. This undershoots it a bit, so it's reasonable to use for "value" calculations.

#8 12-02-2005, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
46 cards left, so our odds are 15

46-15) = 15:31, which is rougly 1:2 or 33%.

A quicker method for a rough calculation is to take the number of outs and multiply by 4 on the flop or 2 on the turn. So 15x2 = 30%. This undershoots it a bit, so it's reasonable to use for "value" calculations

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. This makes sense.

#9 12-02-2005, 02:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A quicker method for a rough calculation is to memorize these numbers

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

krimson · #10 12-02-2005, 02:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A quicker method for a rough calculation is to memorize these numbers

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? Different people have different skill sets. I pretty much auto-pilot these calculations now, but I certainly didn't get there by memorizing a table. For someone to "memorize" this means they're sitting there with a chart and not thinking about what those numbers actually mean.