Get to showdown more? Prove it.

[SomethingClever]

This month, I'm running pretty poorly in the 3/6.

Here are some significant #s.

Went to SD: 29
Fold to river bet: 46.4

VPIP: 19.5
PFR: 14.5

Now, everyone will say, "OMG, you fold too much, you're folding winners, etc, etc..."

Won at SD: 51.8

I swear to christ I'm not folding many winners.

Now, my longer term numbers since I moved up from 1/2 and 2/4 are a little better, more like WTSD 32 and Won at SD 54.

But my winrate has been [censored] the whole time.

I hear people say you need at least 35 for WTSD, but everytime I call down, I lose. I feel like, if anything, I should be folding A LOT more.

Someone tell me what kind of winners I'm folding, and what I need to do about it. I pretty much pay off everything on the river, which I feel is a huge leak.

Comparable numbers from samples where I had a good winrate.

1/2 and 2/4 (60k)

Went to SD: 32.6
Won at SD: 54.66
VPIP: 21
PFR: 13.3
Folded to river bet: 50
bb/100: 2.4

[tolbiny]

During my last 7,000+ hands i am running at 1.9 bb/100- so i am not running particularly hot-
My WTSD is at 38.9- and my W$@sd is 49.94.

Clearly this is FAR more profitable than a 32/52 set if stats. (if it bears out long term). I have been playing 5-10 for > 100,000 hands and i rarely have a stretch of less than 35% WTSD.
This has a lot to do with my style- as i raise the turn alot for the "free" showdown.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I hear people say you need at least 35 for WTSD, but everytime I call down, I lose. I feel like, if anything, I should be folding A LOT more.

Someone tell me what kind of winners I'm folding, and what I need to do about it. I pretty much pay off everything on the river, which I feel is a huge leak.

[/ QUOTE ]
Do you want to be right or do you want to win?

The thing about calling the river with say 9-1 pot odds is most of the time you are going to lose. Weak-tight players get that way because when they make these calls they usually get shown two pair or something. Then they feel like an idiot for wasting a BB. Pretty soon they wise up and start folding these turkeys. That allows them to do the right thing most of the time.

Of course it also costs them a fortune but you can't have everything [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img].

[cartman]

Feeling like every time you call down you lose is an illusion. For instance, you find yourself heads up on the river facing a bet. You flopped a flush draw which didn't come in. The preflop raiser bet the flop and the turn and now the river. There were some other preflop and flop callers, but they all folded on the turn. You missed your flush but you just happened to make of pair of 8's on the river. The board is T9438 with no flush possiblity. At the time of your river decision, let's say the pot contains 10 big bets. You are correct that if you call you are going to "always" lose. But "always" does not literally mean every single time. It is a percentage estimate. It is entirely possible that he is still pounding away with just overcards or 77, 66, 55, A4, or A3. You are getting 9 to 1 odds. That means you only have to win 1 time in 10 to make your call break even. So if you know you will lose 89% of the time, you MUST call. Your call is profitable.

Your went to showdown needs to be higher. Your fold to a river bet needs to be lower. A very low went to showdown could only be justified by a very high won $ at SD which yours is not.

I assure you that you are incorrectly folding many hands. Post some hands where you are torn between calling and folding and you will get some feedback. If you are willing to learn, persistent, and humble, the posters on this forum in general are extremely generous with their time and expertise.

Good luck,
Cartman

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

last i checked my WTSD is around 32 or so. I call down a lot. I too am curios as to what im folding here that i shouldnt be.

[IGMorton]

How often do you steal blinds? In blind steal situations I probably go to showdown 60-70% of the time (because i'm usually raising better hands than the defenders call with). This certainly is a big contributor to my highish WSD 37% and W$SD 52%. I've recently reduced by blind stealing at 3/6 to around 36% and it seems to be working.

[7ontheline]

Well, you're probably running bad over this stretch. That said, the people telling you to increase your SD% and thereby decrease your W$SD are right, even if you still want to argue. I don't remember whose thread it was that examined those stats, but if you muliply them together you should have a number that basically tells you what percent of your total hands you won at showdown.

For example:

.32 x .54 = .1728. 17.28% of the time when you play a hand you get to showdown and win.

How about 36% SD% but only 50% W$SD (which is close to my stats, so this is where I'm getting it from)

.36 x .50 = .18 When I play a hand I take it to showdown and win 18% of the time or so. 0.7% adds up over tens of thousands of hands.

Finally, I can't talk much about the level of the 3/6 game since I've never played below 5/10. However, you must remember that as you move up in levels generally there are going to be more aggressive players. I know this is a gross overgeneralization, but bear with me. Therefore, stats that held up well at lower levels may need to be adjusted for the increased bluffing and thin value betting that occurs - you're going to need to look up people more, because more people are betting their decent but not great hands on the river rather than checking them. People are going to be more likely to fire that last river bet with overcards. You can't fold as much as when you were playing weak, passive players.

[donger]

how does 34.6/50.5 fit into this discussion? I feel like I go to showdown too much with unimproved overcards, too. This is over about 35k hands, and I feel like I've run mediocre to bad overall.

[7ontheline]

Well, I'm not an expert in analyznig pokertracker stats, so I don't know what an "optimal" set of numbers is. The original thread had a number of people posting their numbers, but I don't know where it is and I suck at searching the archives. A little help anybody?

Anyway, what I think is important to remember is that those extra few percentage points here are how many times you win a whole pot. 0.5% therefore is significant because each time you're winning a lot of BBs.

[SomethingClever]

[ QUOTE ]
How often do you steal blinds?

[/ QUOTE ]

27-28%. It was a smidge higher when I played 5/10, but I think you have to tighten up a touch at 3/6 because the blinds aren't worth as much.