Taking a Coinflip in BB on the Absolute Bubble? ($109)

[MSUcougar]

Party $109, 500 entrants... we're at 61 left, money at 60 (2x buyin).

I have 3600 before posting the 600 BB.

Folded to SB who pushes his 7000 stack.

I have 55.

Now, of course SB is pushing basically any 2 here... Although I am definitely not playing to just creep into the money, cashing is much better than being bubble boy.

Is this a call or fold? Why? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[mlagoo]

i mean, this seems like an easy fold for me.

not even having anything to do with the bubble. 40 people from the bubble this seems like an easy fold for me. you still have fold equity. maybe like an orbit or two later this is a call, but not yet.

edit: fwiw, i'm probably calling w/ 88+, maybe 77.

[Roman]

antes? I think this is a call with antes, closer but still probably a call without.

[MSUcougar]

[ QUOTE ]
antes? I think this is a call with antes, closer but still probably a call without.

[/ QUOTE ]
no antes on party...

[nath]

[ QUOTE ]
Party $109, 500 entrants... we're at 61 left, money at 60 (2x buyin).

I have 3600 before posting the 600 BB.

Folded to SB who pushes his 7000 stack.

I have 55.

Now, of course SB is pushing basically any 2 here... Although I am definitely not playing to just creep into the money, cashing is much better than being bubble boy.

Is this a call or fold? Why? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Call. Why?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.3249 % 59.64% 00.68% { 55 }
Hand 2: 39.6751 % 38.99% 00.68% { random }

Cashing would have to mean something for you to fold here. If winning means more, call.

[MSUcougar]

[ QUOTE ]
Call. Why?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 60.3249 % 59.64% 00.68% { 55 }
Hand 2: 39.6751 % 38.99% 00.68% { random }

Cashing would have to mean something for you to fold here. If winning means more, call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Winning definitely means more. However, given my stack size, I'm not sure calling and winning gives me ENOUGH of a stack (as compared to what I'd have if I folded) to justify risking it all on the bubble.

Thoughts on this?

[Sam T.]

When you say, "of course SB is pushing basically any 2 here", is that based on a read of his play up to this point or how he should be playing? (In one of Adanthar's tournament histories, he noted one case in which he almost called a Button push with A9 or something like that, and then "I remembered that not everyone plays like me, and folded.")

Anyway, you're 60% against a random hand, but that random hand includes hands you dominate and those that give the villain three outs. If you really think he's pushing 43o and 82o, then I guess a call is in order. If you think he's going with something better than this, I probably fold. I'd rather be the aggressor than call and pray for a coinflip.

[mackthefork]

I'd fold and take the ~170 dollars, if it's 10 from the bubble I call.

Mack

I would not call a push with this hand unless I'm absolutely sure the all-in player could be shoving any two. I've been burned by calling with small pairs so often that it just isn't a good bet in my books.

If you were to eliminate the bottom 40% of hands and figure villain is only pushing the top 60% then you're a 55/45 favorite. Tighten the range and you get closer to a dead even matchup, about 52/48. I prefer picking better spots than this and I'm sure you can find one before being blinded out. You'd literally have to include every trash hand in villains range to be ahead enough to make a call a marginally correct play as a 60/40 favorite with just under 1.5:1 being offered by the pot.

This is an easy fold to me.

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd push with this hand but not call with it unless I'm absolutely sure the all-in player could be shoving any two. I've been burned by calling with small pairs so often that it just isn't a good bet in my books.

If you were to eliminate the bottom 40% of hands and figure villain is only pushing the top 60% then you're a 55/45 favorite. Tighten the range and you get closer to a dead even matchup, about 52/48. I prefer picking better spots than this and I'm sure you can find one before being blinded out. You'd literally have to include every trash hand in villains range to be ahead enough to make a call a marginally correct play as a 60/40 favorite with just under 1.5:1 being offered by the pot.

This is an easy fold to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

The main issue for me is, it seems with 61 left and 5 times the BB that he will have $EV of higher than 60th place money at the moment, and this will fall if he makes this call in my opinion. There must be small stacks here, someone will be gone long before the blinds come back to him, the average stack is ~11k so he's not a million miles off the pace.

Mack