passive against agressive

newhizzle · #1 09-26-2005, 01:24 AM

hows this against maniac, 44/28/3.2, havent been paying much attention, but these are his stats after a few orbits

Party Poker 3.00/6.00 Hold'em (9 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.17 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.17 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.17 BB.

pauliewalnuts · #2 09-26-2005, 01:39 AM

That flop call is about as thin as it gets IMO. I'd be folding here. Sure, your pair outs could be good here, but even LAGS get good hands sometimes. I wouldnt want to pay to find out.

newhizzle · #3 09-26-2005, 01:43 AM

i wasnt too worried about a boat and figured my implied odds would be good if i hit against this player, plus possible pair outs, but i didnt give them much value

donny5k · #4 09-26-2005, 02:59 AM

You aren't going to win often enough to call the flop in my opinion.

#5 09-26-2005, 03:01 AM

I think, you played fine here.
I would probably have even raised the turn, but I'm usually too loose here, so please don't take too much on my advice.

Nick C · #6 09-26-2005, 03:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i wasnt too worried about a boat and figured my implied odds would be good if i hit against this player, plus possible pair outs, but i didnt give them much value

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the flop call is fine.

Although your read is a little sketchy, Villain has been raising more hands preflop than you or I play. Unfortunately for us (on this board), that could include a lot of bad aces, but I think there's too good of a chance that you have 13-41 outs for us to be thinking of folding the flop.

One problem, though, is that I probably would let Villain buy the pot from me with his 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], if I was still unimproved on the turn. (So I guess I shouldn't be thinking in terms of 41 outs, since this opponent isn't going to hesitate to continue bluffing, if that's what he's doing.)

If the turn brought, say, the T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], though, I think I'd convince myself that I needed to see a showdown.

newhizzle · #7 09-26-2005, 03:25 AM

yeah i didnt think about the possibility of 41 outs, im pretty sure i was folding the turn UI, how often do you think queen high is good enough to showdown against this type of player?

on a double paired board i guess its less likely that he hit if we assume he has random cards, but if im behind im drawing dead

Nick C · #8 09-26-2005, 03:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah i didnt think about the possibility of 41 outs, im pretty sure i was folding the turn UI, how often do you think queen high is good enough to showdown against this type of player?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure, but even if you are behind (and there is a good chance you are, I think), you still could have 13 outs on a turn blank.

One problem, though, is that Villain probably raises a lot of aces preflop that I would just fold. And that adds up to quite a few combos, even with two aces on the board.

Anyway, I think that, like you, I'd plan to fold the turn unimproved. But I would wonder if I should have at least peeled one more time instead.

[ QUOTE ]
on a double paired board i guess its less likely that he hit if we assume he has random cards, but if im behind im drawing dead

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a problem, I agree, but you do now beat 99-22 (in addition to unpaired suited and/or connnected rags), which is why I'd probably convince myself to see a showdown.

donny5k · #9 09-26-2005, 04:07 AM

After throwing in the hand range of any ace, any broadway, and any pair (27% PFR) into pokerstove, and assuming he'll bet the whole way regardless, QJo is a 3 to 1 underdog on the flop. If you decide to call down the whole way regardless you are getting a little better than 11:5 odds. It's important to note that against that range QJo is never the best hand on the flop. Now since he may actually raise more but slows down when people raise in front of him, QJo might be the best hand some of the time. But not very often at all.

If there is an edge on this flop (with any strategy), then the edge must be microscopic.

Nick C · #10 09-26-2005, 04:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
After throwing in the hand range of any ace, any broadway, and any pair (27% PFR) into pokerstove, and assuming he'll bet the whole way regardless, QJo is a 3 to 1 underdog on the flop. If you decide to call down the whole way regardless you are getting a little better than 11:5 odds. It's important to note that against that range QJo is never the best hand on the flop. Now since he may actually raise more but slows down when people raise in front of him, QJo might be the best hand some of the time. But not very often at all.

If there is an edge on this flop (with any strategy), then the edge must be microscopic.

[/ QUOTE ]

A couple of thoughts:

(1) Calling the flop does not commit us to a showdown. If we catch a king on the turn, then I like our hand a lot. Sure, we'll lose to a boat (or even quads) on occasion, when Villain's A5o improves on the river (and occasionally he'll have TT to begin with), but I think calling one SB, getting 7:1, with two big streets to come, is worth it just based on our chances of hitting our gutshot combined with our implied odds. Our implied odds should be pretty good, against this player.

If we catch aces up instead, my guess is that we're at least breaking even on a calldown (the pot's not empty, and we'll be getting decent odds), although improving will just cost us extra, sometimes.

(2) I think your PokerStove analysis is useful, and I was curious how our hand fared against Villain's likely range. However, for what it's worth, I do suspect the range you used is a bit tidy. What I mean by that is that I'd be surprised if Villain always raised A3o and never raised 95s. I don't think most LAGs have an entirely consistent or reliable preflop range.