Taking One Off (thanks in advance...)

[prop]

please forgive me if this is old hat. i've been a working prop for 8 years but the whole idea of on-line and poker tracker stats are a little new to me. soooo, anyway, ive logged 25k hands 4 tabling 10-20 and 15-30 and avg. 2.53 bb per 100. when i filter i notice im a loser when raising pf then calling the flop and i know this is because on line im in robo call down mode whereas in a casino i make good reads/laydowns. how do you all handle situations like this which come up nonstop and are way more likely to be bullshyt on-line than in a casino:

1 MP limper you raise w/ 88 on button all fold. flop comes 4h5hjc. MP limper w/ stats like 28/13/2 donk bets you?

1 MP limper you raise w/ AcQh on button all fold. flop comes 4h5hjc. MP limper w/ stats like 28/13/2 check raises you?

the stats seem to say i should just fold both times but i cant beleive this is true.

are there any generally held beleifs regarding "taking one off" on-line...i know in live play you can take one off in position and "scare" your opponent to get a free card. on-line 2 barrels are always fired 3 barrels are fired 90+% it seems...

[ErrantNight]

you definitely should peel with the c/r hand, if for metagame implications if nothing else, planning to fold the turn unimproved.

the 88 hand is tougher. MP could be betting a J here, but doesn't have to be. i think it's close raise/call. raise to charge a draw and because you might have the best hand. call if you read MP to be slightly more straightforward. he's too aggressive for you to necessarily peg him for a J, I think.

[Harv72b]

I raise the first hand, planning to check through the turn UI or fold to a turn donkbet. I call the c/r in Hand 2, planning to fold to a turn bet UI (hand 2 is an easy call as you not only have to the two overcards, but also backdoor straight & flush draws).

I think what's killing your profit margin in situations like this is not so much calling the flop bets, as it is calling the turn and/or river bets. Those BBs add up over time, especially if you're aggressive preflop. Also, note that these are just my default lines in situations like this--playing on 10/20 & 15/30, you need to vary your plays as many of your opponents will notice tendencies & attempt to exploit them.

[callmedonnie]

Hand two I think we all agree is an easy call. With the eights wouldn't you have a better chance of betting the turn, folding to a c/r. Checking behind seems like an invitation for someone to bet overcard river, which I hate.

Wouldn't you prefer to check behind on the river? This way you get the same # of bets if you get donkbet and you call on the river, but now you've saved yourself a river decision.

Obviously reads make a world of difference.

[prop]

run a filter where you are just looking at hands where you were in the cutoff or button raised PF and then called the flop. are these hands losers for you? I dont think "calling down" is a problem for me becuase im a winner when showing down a high card so i must be calling down at a correct freqency BUT i think these auto calls on the flop, though they seem right, may be undeniable losers. maybe im misssing something hidden in the filter im using.

[Harv72b]

I think on 10/20 & 15/30, Hero is often getting donkbet on the river whether he bets the turn or not, assuming villain calls the turn bet. But FWIW, I would expect villain to check/raise the flop rather than lead it if he'd hit top pair or a flush draw. The lead is usually either a smaller pocket pair or a big ace that decided to wait until after the flop to play back at Hero (or a total bluff). So I prefer checking through the turn to induce a river bluff out of a worse hand, rather than risk folding that worse hand with a turn bet.

Disclaimer: My 10/20 & 15/30 experience is less than that of the OP; this is just based on what I saw when I did play those limits.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
are these hands losers for you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still playing right now, but I'll run the filter later & let you know what I find.

[donny5k]

It doesn't matter if these hands are losers. The money you put in preflop is a sunk cost once the flop comes. Whenever this situation occurs you are definitely an underdog to lose the hand so you are going to lose part of your preflop investment in the long run. The REAL point is whether your flop call is +EV or not given the pot odds. I don't understand how you could misunderstand this after playing for so long.

If they are big enough losers that you likely made postflop mistakes, then you can be concerned.

[Harv72b]

Running a filter involving hands where I raised preflop (whether first in or not) and either called or raised the flop, I am winning at a pretty solid clip. However, this is at lower limits (I lost the database from when I played medium stakes). Running the same filter, but now only including hands where I called the flop, I am losing just over 1 BB/100. But this is a very small sample size, as I rarely just call the flop after raising preflop.

I am a slight loser on blind steals where I called or raised the flop.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
It doesn't matter if these hands are losers. The money you put in preflop is a sunk cost once the flop comes. Whenever this situation occurs you are definitely an underdog to lose the hand so you are going to lose part of your preflop investment in the long run. The REAL point is whether your flop call is +EV or not given the pot odds. I don't understand how you could misunderstand this after playing for so long.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say, but if you're trying to say that Hero should expect to lose money after raising preflop, you are very wrong.