Was hansen's call wrong?

[DanTheCardMan]

I'm a relative newbie, but I think I have a handle on Gus' decision. Feel free to tell me I'm full of it.

You can't think in terms of pot odds at that point in the tourney. You have to look at it in terms of possible winnings. I'm gonna try to do the math here, but forgive me if I get it messed up.

With Gus holding 10's, there are 24 possible hands he's a huge dog to (6 each of A, K, Q, J). There are 96 hands that he's a slight favorite to (16 each of AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, and QJ) and very few hands that Phillips would play in that situation that TT would dominate.

By making this call, essentially Hansen is betting at least 1.5:1 and probably 3.5:1 in prize money on what's a 1:1 shot at making his hand. That means that in 100 similar situations, Gus would average about 50 wins and 50 losses.

Prize money for 3rd place was $250,000, while prize for 2nd place was $500,000 and 1st place was $1,100,000. Fifty times, Gus goes away with 250,000, and 50 times, Gus comes away with the chance to make $1,100,000. Let's say that of those 50 times, he wins 5/6 of them(with a 5-1 chip lead), or 43. That means 7 times he ends up with the 2nd place $$.

50(250,000) + 7(500,000) + 43(1,100,000) = 12,500,000 + 3,500,000 + 47,300,000 = 63,300,000. So by making that call, Gus would average 633,000 in winnings.

However, if Gus folds, and hangs around until the short stack is taken out (not sure how to figure a percentage for this possibility), his chance at winning goes up. Say the short stack goes out every time. That means that Gus and Phillips would be about even in heads-up. So 50 times Gus would win 1,1000,000 and 50 times he'd win 500,000.

50(1,100,000) + 50(500,000) = 55,000,000 + 25,000,000 = 80,000,000 for an average win of 800,000.

So by making that call in that spot, Hansen effectively cost himself 800,000 - 633,000 = 167,000 in prize money.

Bad call.

[Nick B.]

It wasn't actually a coin flip, Gus was like a 57-43 favorite. And Gus could discount AA and KK as Paul would likely have played them differently.

[Dynasty]

I think your analysis is also tainted because you aren't allowing for Phillips to push all-in with 99-66 which he often will, especially 99 and 88. He could also make this play with ATs. Remember, he made a big reraise with J9s against Gus.

[Rushmore]

The more I read about it here, and the more I ponder it, the less confident it appears Gus was against Phillips.

I think ultimately, that if Gus were truly confident he could outplay Phillips, he would have mucked and then just tried to pick him apart instead.

Maybe Phillips had his number on this day, and Gus' frustration with being outplayed led him to simply say, "Screw it--I'm a favorite on this hand, and that's good enough for me right now," which is indeed a thought process which can occur in a frustrated player in a tournament.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your analysis is also tainted because you aren't allowing for Phillips to push all-in with 99-66 which he often will, especially 99 and 88. He could also make this play with ATs. Remember, he made a big reraise with J9s against Gus.

[/ QUOTE ]


This is an excellent point. Think of it this way, if you play with the cards up and you know what Paul has, then I would probably fold in this spot. However, if you feel that Paul at best has only one overcard or an underpair or less, then you have to call. I agree that Gus probably was certain that Paul didn't have an overpair, except maybe JJ and QQ. So, only two hands that were an absolute favorite that Paul could hold were possible. This means he's either a coin flip or a favorite against any of Paul's other holdings. I think it was a great call myself and he just got "unlucky" as they say.

[MHoydilla]

I watched the broad cast but dont remember the suits of gus's Ts and Phillips AQs. Also I ran the hand through 2dimes and got TT= 54.3 AQs= 45.7 if the T is the same suit as AQS, and TT=54.0 AQs =46.0 if the T is not the suit of AQs. But if you run the hand with a ten dead because if I remember correctly Dewy Tomko folded a TJs then the hand goes to TT=.501 AQs=.499. It is impossible for either player to know that dewy had a T but according to WPT cam. he did. So racing for the chips they were a virtual coin flip.

[tdomeski]

Okay, Gus knows three things:
1) Paul doesn't have AA
2) Paul doesn't have KK
3) Paul could/would make the same play with 8-8 or 9-9

With this said I think Gus knows he's probably in a race situation or a huge favorite.

Turns out he was up against AQo and was a 57% favorite, If he wins that hand he wins the tournament IMO, so I believe it was a correct call.

IMHO Gus made the right call.

[curtains]

I like the call too, i posted this in the wrong thread a bit ago. You ahve to be a real genius to push allin with AA or KK there (honestly I dont imagine such a large raise with QQ, as its simply a monster in a 3 handed game). The hand I'd be most scared of is JJ.
It's not often you get a hand as big as TT in a 3 handed game.

[thetman]

What does everyone think of Gus? Did he just get very lucky last season? Is he that good? I'm curious.

[Toro]

This is a clear call for Gus. Gus has a table image of a maniac who will raise with anything to steal the blinds. He knows the other players all know it. Phillips could have made that all-in raise with just about anything as a re-steal. Because of this Gus has to be pretty confident his 10's are good.