SNGPT says it's negEV....

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
This is an auto fold. Yes, you are well ahead of his range, but you have to understand that when you lose here you are losing $11.50 in equity. When you win here you only have $15.00 equity in the tourney. If cutoff takes out the short stack your equity jumps up to $12.65.

Sometimes you are going to make the money as a short stack. This is not a crime. Trying to hard to avoid it is just giving money away.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to justify that with something more than an assertion?

Here's my expanded analysis:

I like the $EV call number from SnGPT of 22.6% because BB will almost certainly fold, hoping you will bust. SB isn't going to call without a monster.

If you fold, there are several possibilities. Let's start by assuming that SB is a $22 weakie and will fold.

Then let's assume that BB always calls on pot odds, and is 50/50 in the hand. If he busts, your equity is 25.3%, if he doubles, your equity is 18.6%, the mean of which is 21.9%.

22.6% > 21.9%, so it looks like a call with those assumptions.

If BB calls sometimes and folds, sometimes, then the fold equity is a blend of 21.9% and the SnGPT number of 23.0%. This implies that the breakeven point is BB folding 63% of the time. That seems high, although this is a $22 so anything is possible. In any case, it seems a lot closer than "auto fold" to me. How do you arrive at "auto fold"?

eastbay