I have to be ahead.....don't I?

[SpaceAce]

My first thought was, "Shucks, too bad that's the cap." Maybe that's a bit much but I am surprised to see a couple of people here who think you're "probably" beat. You mat or may not have won this particular hand but I think "probably beat" is WAY pessimistic. No way do I believe you can fold that hand in that position for two bets.

SpaceAce

[mike l.]

"how often am I ahead?"

ok it was online. then the answer is "far often enough to cap the turn and the river without a second thought about it."

[ike]

[ QUOTE ]
Part of having a winning career at limit poker is -- if the cards come up such that someone is entitled to your money, you give it to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf?

[Lawrence Ng]

Call the river and it's not even close.

Anyone with QQ would have 3-bet preflop so we can likely rule that hand out.

Anyone with a straight flush draw is going to pump that flop when you bet. That didn't happen,

Anyone with a set is going to pump that flop when you bet. That didn't happen.

If CO has any sort of a big hand on the turn, he would have bet. My guess is that CO had the Ac and whatever for a kicker looking for the backdoor runner runners straight/flush draws.

BB hand is definitely to fear after he caps the river, but I think your estimate of only being ahead 13% of the time is too low. I'd put him on JT based on how he played, possibly QJ as well, with small odd chance he did play a straight flush this way. I'm still sticking to my guns with CO having the Ace of clubs.

I think you are ahead here more than 40% of the time at least, and that is also being too conservative of an estimate.

With that estimate, I'd like to go back to my original statemtent to call the river and it's not even close.

Lawrence

[andyfox]

The pot has indeed been capped, so now Josh has only two options to consider. But rather than like 7-2 pre-flop, where it's a proverbial no-brainer, here he has two viable options. I agree, and posted, that calling seems much better, but he makes a good case for folding, or for at least considering folding. To simply throw in two more bets on the river against two opponents without considering what they might have strikes me as silly.

[andyfox]

5-handed.

[Garland]

I can't believe no one has said it (explicitly at least). Bet the turn! You may be missing out on a lot of action here (like BB who may have whiffed a turn check-raise). In addition, it's possible to charge your opponents for drawing slim/dead.

Also, call the river cap. Easy call.

Garland

[Klepton]

[ QUOTE ]
Slowplaying followed by a tough fold is almost always a disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is an amazing quote.

OP, don't get FPS, just call down...and if they show a SF, muck your hand so they still thnk you're a dumb lag that called with trip jacks or AK or something.

[elindauer]

What are you talking about? Button has Ac, big blind has a lower fullhouse. You win most of the time. Folding would be a HUGE mistake.

Also, why wouldn't you bet the turn? That is an action card, and you have a laggy image. Bet and go for 3-bets.

Good luck.
Eric

[Duke]

You're ahead about 98.2% of the time.

~D