I have to be ahead.....don't I?

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you put my opponents on then?


Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

Who care? At this point and with your hand, doing anything other than throwing you money in and hoping for the best is just plain silly.

[IndieMatty]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what do you put my opponents on then?


Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

Who care? At this point and with your hand, doing anything other than throwing you money in and hoping for the best is just plain silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

[andyfox]

Isn't just throwing one's money in and hoping for the best silly? There are only three options in poker; isn't it a shame not to consider all three?

[catlover]

You are probably losing. But you should just pay it off. Your hand is beaten by only 4 of the roughly 1000 possible specific two-card combinations out there. Based on the action, someone probably has one of those 4 hands. You are in the 0.8% of cases where you are a loser. But if someone has one of those 4 hands, they are entitled to your money. Part of having a winning career at limit poker is -- if the cards come up such that someone is entitled to your money, you give it to them. This will not make you into a loser.

On the other hand, making "big laydowns" in big pot situations where you might be ahead can turn you into a loser. This is why you need to pay.

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't just throwing one's money in and hoping for the best silly? There are only three options in poker; isn't it a shame not to consider all three?

[/ QUOTE ]

Three options:

raise? can't. pot's been capped.

fold? pot's too big and your hand's too strong. chance of having the best hand is too high.

call? only choice remaining. if that's your only choice, who cares what your opponent has.

It's like if you have 72 preflop and you're going to fold. Who cares what they're raising and reraising with.

[mike l.]

i didnt actually read all the post but i skimmed it and i think i get the gist. is this going to be another of those hustler yeah i know all the players and they all know me and we all play good and they know i know they know i know they have it and i have it and our cards are basically face up so of course i should check-call down or even just MUCK threads? cause that's what it looks like youre doing again.

post a hand where no one has the nuts and no one knows it.

[golferbrent]

[ QUOTE ]
5 handed 30-60, and I have a LAG image.

I raise QJ UTG. Cutoff calls and BB calls. Threeway action. Flop comes QJT, with the Q and T of clubs. BB checks, I bet. CO and BB both call. Hmmmmm.

Turn is Jc, making the board (QJTc)Jx.

BB checks, and I check, somewhat confident that CO will bet here. But, dagnabit, he checks behind. Oh well.

River is the 2c, putting four clubs up there.

BB bets out. I raise. CO threebets!!

now, the BB caps it!!!!!

I'm getting about 7.5:1 to call the last two bets, with no fear of future raises. I call because I think I'm probably ahead more than 13% of the time.

But I was confused. See, when the BB bet out, and I raised, then the CO threebet, well, then the CO HAD to have the Ac, and even then it's an iffy raise.

WHen the BB capped it, I knew he didn't have a 'flush', though he may have had a straight flush. I just couldn't see him having a fullhouse. See, if he had two pair on the flop, I think he'd play it faster to maybe use me as leverage to force out a draw (like AT or A8 or some such). maybe he flopped a set, but I think he'd threebet TT or QQ preflop, and if not, I again think he'd protect it on the flop.

So, I really thought he may have had 89c or K9c, slowplaying on the flop. So, yeah. I called, but I really didn't like it. In retrospect, I'm not sure I'm even ahead 13% of the time there (with my second-nut-full-house).

Comments?

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

I think with the funny way that you played it you have disguised your hand and no one is going to put you on a full-house. I think you are definitely ahead here more often then 13%.

I think your read of CO is correct... he could easily be putting in a raise here with the naked Ac. As a result then the player to be concerned about is the BB and whether he is better then you.

I think BB could have a worse FH then you. Fearing the St8Flush seems to be too apprehensive.

[Josh W]

This was online. I had no notes on any players. (that is enough, of course, to say that I should call).

I find it interesting that nobody has answered the "how often am I ahead?" question.

Josh

[hockey1]

If you know you have a LAG image, raising QJo UTG is just bad poker.

Not calling the river would be atrocious.

[Paluka]

Slowplaying followed by a tough fold is almost always a disaster.