I have to be ahead.....don't I?

[Josh W]

5 handed 30-60, and I have a LAG image.

I raise QJ UTG. Cutoff calls and BB calls. Threeway action. Flop comes QJT, with the Q and T of clubs. BB checks, I bet. CO and BB both call. Hmmmmm.

Turn is Jc, making the board (QJTc)Jx.

BB checks, and I check, somewhat confident that CO will bet here. But, dagnabit, he checks behind. Oh well.

River is the 2c, putting four clubs up there.

BB bets out. I raise. CO threebets!!

now, the BB caps it!!!!!

I'm getting about 7.5:1 to call the last two bets, with no fear of future raises. I call because I think I'm probably ahead more than 13% of the time.

But I was confused. See, when the BB bet out, and I raised, then the CO threebet, well, then the CO HAD to have the Ac, and even then it's an iffy raise.

WHen the BB capped it, I knew he didn't have a 'flush', though he may have had a straight flush. I just couldn't see him having a fullhouse. See, if he had two pair on the flop, I think he'd play it faster to maybe use me as leverage to force out a draw (like AT or A8 or some such). maybe he flopped a set, but I think he'd threebet TT or QQ preflop, and if not, I again think he'd protect it on the flop.

So, I really thought he may have had 89c or K9c, slowplaying on the flop. So, yeah. I called, but I really didn't like it. In retrospect, I'm not sure I'm even ahead 13% of the time there (with my second-nut-full-house).

Comments?

Josh