I have to be ahead.....don't I?

[Josh W]

5 handed 30-60, and I have a LAG image.

I raise QJ UTG. Cutoff calls and BB calls. Threeway action. Flop comes QJT, with the Q and T of clubs. BB checks, I bet. CO and BB both call. Hmmmmm.

Turn is Jc, making the board (QJTc)Jx.

BB checks, and I check, somewhat confident that CO will bet here. But, dagnabit, he checks behind. Oh well.

River is the 2c, putting four clubs up there.

BB bets out. I raise. CO threebets!!

now, the BB caps it!!!!!

I'm getting about 7.5:1 to call the last two bets, with no fear of future raises. I call because I think I'm probably ahead more than 13% of the time.

But I was confused. See, when the BB bet out, and I raised, then the CO threebet, well, then the CO HAD to have the Ac, and even then it's an iffy raise.

WHen the BB capped it, I knew he didn't have a 'flush', though he may have had a straight flush. I just couldn't see him having a fullhouse. See, if he had two pair on the flop, I think he'd play it faster to maybe use me as leverage to force out a draw (like AT or A8 or some such). maybe he flopped a set, but I think he'd threebet TT or QQ preflop, and if not, I again think he'd protect it on the flop.

So, I really thought he may have had 89c or K9c, slowplaying on the flop. So, yeah. I called, but I really didn't like it. In retrospect, I'm not sure I'm even ahead 13% of the time there (with my second-nut-full-house).

Comments?

Josh

[Joe826]

you're right, that's interesting action.. but if you're even considering folding..

there is precisely one hand that beats you, right?

[Josh W]

AKc
K9c
98c
QQ

all beat me. They seem somewhat unlikely given the preflop/flop action. But it also gets tricky to put my opponents on other hands, as well.

I didn't think about folding, because I thought I was probably ahead more than 13% of the time. But in retrospect, I'm wondering if I should have thought about folding.

Josh

come on, josh. you've got those numbers way jumbled. you're ahead - way ahead.

[Josh W]

what do you put my opponents on then?

And, while I concede that I may be ahead, anything you say my opponents can have, I'll tell you why they can't have them (and this includes hands that beat me).

Josh

[phish]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you put my opponents on then?


Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

Who care? At this point and with your hand, doing anything other than throwing you money in and hoping for the best is just plain silly.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you put my opponents on then?

And, while I concede that I may be ahead, anything you say my opponents can have, I'll tell you why they can't have them (and this includes hands that beat me).

Josh

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll bite.

BB could have:

- JxTx: Reasonable call BTF. Flop check-call reasonable, players don't always protect/jam on the flop. Going for a turn checkraise is also reasonable. River bet out and cap reasonable considering turn got checked through. Comment elsewhere in this thread regarding "folding after slowplaying usually wrong" applies here.

- AcJx: Reasonable call BTF. Flop check-call reasonable/happens. Turn missed his checkraise. River bet out followed by a fustration cap.

- 2x 2x: Auto call BTF. Real players do take one of on flop getting only 8.7 to 1. Turn checked through so he couldn't fold. Hits set on river. Overplays it since turn was checked through.

- TT: Some people don't three bet to a raiser and cold caller. Rest of hand makes perfect sense.

CO could have:

- JT suited: Unknown players make these calls cold BTF. On flop decided to wait until turn to raise or wanted to see what comes. Turn decided to slowplay since he was checked to hoping for river bet or club. Not my play but reasonable/possible. River three-bet standard after turn is checked through.

-AcJx: Most would three bet BTF but may have heard cold calling is the new reraising. Flop call reasonable with second pair, backdoor flush draw. Turn decided he was way ahead and decided to slowplay. River standard three bet with nut flush.

There must be other hands but I'm too tired. I like Lawrence Ng's estimate of 40% you are ahead. My guess is you lost this hand, but even so, if repeated in another lifetime I like that 40% figure.

~ Rick

PS If you lost this hand, try to run good next time [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Tranvisor]

The only thing I can think of is that the BB has JT for a slightly smaller boat and the CO has the Ac. K9c and 98c make sense but if you lose to a str flush, oh well. QQ and TT just don't make any sense at all preflop. Perhaps BB was waiting til the turn to check raise with his two pair (because of your LAG image he thought his hand was easily most likely good on the flop) and the action got checked behind him

[Josh W]

That's certainly a reasonable assesment. The problems are:

1.) Would the BB slowplay bottom two on a draw intensive board when he has a LAG to use as leverage with/against?

2.) Would the Ac threebet on the river when it's FAR from the nuts against two other opponents?

These both seem somewhat unlikely, albeit not impossible.

Josh

[daryn]

i don't know what kind of games you play in, but just because there's a pair on board, doesn't mean people won't cap the river w/ the Ac.