A6 HU against moneybag.

Schizo · #1 03-21-2005, 02:59 AM

Villian is 19/14 over 88 hands.

Wondering if moneybag was just being tricky. Should I fold to the raise on the flop? Was my open raise a good move?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero.....

Shillx · #2 03-21-2005, 03:18 AM

What is he check/raising the flop with? A king, a set, 98s for a straight draw or maybe some other random pair. When the turn card hits, you are in bad shape against this range of hands. The pot isn't big enough to try and suckout imo.

Brad

college_boy · #3 03-21-2005, 04:35 AM

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What is he check/raising the flop with? A king, a set, 98s for a straight draw or maybe some other random pair. When the turn card hits, you are in bad shape against this range of hands. The pot isn't big enough to try and suckout imo.

Brad

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Don't you think he would wait until the turn to make his move with a big hand like a set? Regardless, I still think this is a fold. At best you have 6.5 outs and the pot is only laying you 7.5 to 1.

Schizo · #4 03-21-2005, 04:39 AM

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Don't you think he would wait until the turn to make his move with a big hand like a set?

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That is what I was thinking. I really thought he was just trying to get fancy. What pot odds do you think I need to call? 5:1? 7:1?

college_boy · #5 03-21-2005, 04:49 AM

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Don't you think he would wait until the turn to make his move with a big hand like a set?

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That is what I was thinking. I really thought he was just trying to get fancy. What pot odds do you think I need to call? 5:1? 7:1?

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I don't think 5:1 is close, 7:1 is closer. but I would still fold. I would probably need at least 8:1 to continue with this hand. What percentage of the time do you think you're in the lead here?

Michael Davis · #6 03-21-2005, 04:54 AM

"I really thought he was just trying to get fancy."

Then threebet the flop.

-Michael

einbert · #7 03-21-2005, 05:37 AM

PF is fine.

I would call and fold the turn UI.

I don't see why you think he's "trying to get tricky". Most thinking players at this level do this when they flop top pair HU, even though it's not always right. There aren't many draws out there for him to be semibluffing except 89, and 89 does have 14 outs against you twice. You almost certainly have a full 6.5 clean outs, though, so peel one off.

If a spade comes on the turn and the river blanks off and he's still betting, I think it's an easy fold.

einbert · #8 03-21-2005, 05:40 AM

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Don't you think he would wait until the turn to make his move with a big hand like a set?

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That is what I was thinking. I really thought he was just trying to get fancy. What pot odds do you think I need to call? 5:1? 7:1?

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I don't think 5:1 is close, 7:1 is closer. but I would still fold. I would probably need at least 8:1 to continue with this hand. What percentage of the time do you think you're in the lead here?

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Consider your pot odds. 6.5 outs means you need only 6.2-1 to break even! You're almost never drawing to less outs than that, villian only has a set a tiny percentage of the time here compared to the times he has KT, KJ, or whatever (AK 3-bets you PF since his PFR is >=13. If a spade hits the turn you will have an easy call, and if you make aces up or 666 you're almost certainly good. Aces up could be risky but there is a pretty decent overlay to account for that.

Consider that you're ahead something like (5%,10%) here and you need even less to make this call.

Mathematically I don't really see how a fold is possible.

college_boy · #9 03-21-2005, 06:00 AM

Why are you factoring 5-10% of the time you're ahead and not factoring the times you're facing a hand where your outs aren't good? And what do you mean by "rarely" drawing to less than 6.5 outs. I would say you're drawing to fewer than 6.5 more than 10% of the time.

einbert · #10 03-22-2005, 03:15 AM

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Why are you factoring 5-10% of the time you're ahead and not factoring the times you're facing a hand where your outs aren't good? And what do you mean by "rarely" drawing to less than 6.5 outs. I would say you're drawing to fewer than 6.5 more than 10% of the time.

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10% does qualify as rarely to me.

Let's say 50% of the time we're drawing dead, 40% of the time we're drawing to 6.5 outs, and 10% of the time we are ahead. I'll even give our opponent seven outs against us on average, even though it's going to be less than that almost every time.

So we have (.5*0) + (.4*6.5) + (.1*38) = 6.4 outs on average

If these numbers are correct, folding is a mistake and calling makes us money.