QQ in the BB again, do I call all in? - Page 2

nicky g · #11 07-30-2003, 10:52 AM

"It seems I see a lot of players set up this kind of move, make huge raises 2 or 3 times with bluffs and then when you finally call them they've got it."
This doesn't strike me as setting up a move - he's jst a lunatic who got lucky. He couldn't know that a better hand wouldn't call him those other times.

ArtVandelay · #12 07-30-2003, 03:15 PM

From the way your post was originally written, you make it sound like this player would push all-in with any ace or any pair. In this case you expect to be against a better pair only 1 time in 21.4. When the cards were turned over, you were beaten. When you expect something is really unlikely and it happens, this often means you were wrong about how likely it was. Yes, it could be you were just unlucky, but you need to seriously consider the probability that you misevaluated the situation. I'm not trying to make you feel bad or anything, just pointing out that you should try to learn from this experience and make sure that it really was fair to put him on a wide range of hands. For example, the other times he put all that money in were there no big stacks left to act? Did he do it even when there were two limpers to him? Of the times he did it, how many of the hands did he show? Etc., etc. Good luck.

RollaJ · #13 07-31-2003, 10:56 AM

According to the post,out of about 10 hands (10 minutes at 60 hands an hour) the guy pushes all in 4 or 5 times (40-50% of the time) how can you not call when only behind to exactly 2 hand combinations. As I said, it just suck(ed) [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Copernicus · #14 07-31-2003, 01:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If he he has been raising like this and you can't push all-in with QQ, you should probably step down a limit..

[/ QUOTE ]

Or dont play NL.

tewall · #15 07-31-2003, 04:05 PM

If the $600 makes you uncomfortable, cash out, and play another game. When you get to a level of discomfort, quit playing.

As another poster said, if it were an all-in bet of $11 and you needed to call with a stack of $6 (everything else proportional), given your description of the guy, you would call in a flash, expect to win, and not be too upset if you lost.

Good luck.

ArtVandelay · #16 07-31-2003, 04:33 PM

> According to the post,out of about 10 hands (10 minutes at 60 hands an hour) the guy pushes all in 4 or 5 times (40-50% of the time) how can you not call when only behind to exactly 2 hand combinations. As I said, it just suck(ed)

My comment was aimed directly at Acesover8s. I agree that if he accurately portrayed the situation then yes, he did get unlucky. But my point was that he may be trying to justify things after the fact or something, and I was hoping he would get a hand history and see if it really was 4-5 times in the last minute or something less extreme. And like I said, it's possible the guy only did this when there were small stacks still in the hand, in which case he's totally suckering the big stacks by looking more aggressive than he really will be against them. Of course no one who consistantly pushes all-in pre-flop that frequently can be a winning player, but that doesn't mean you're making money off him. And again, I'm just pointing out that purely statistically, if you think something is really unlikely and then it happens you should re-examine your estimation proceedure. When all the money is in and you get sucked out on at 43-1 on the last card, most 2+2 posts assume that the game is fair, so everyone agrees it's bad luck. But when the probability is simply someone's estimate, it's unlikely they believe in themselves strongly enough to attribute the result entirely to bad luck. Maybe when Acesover8s goes back and looks at a history of the last however many hands he will indeed decide that his evaluation was right, but I'm just pointing out that he should make sure to do so.